ALFA DATA BLOG


Our 2020-21 season start


We have just started the 2020/21 season of betting with Alfa Data and this International Break is a good opportunity to review our performance in this first month of this new season. We have placed 50 bets so far and stacked a total of 100 units. Our profit so far is 22.14 units. This translates into a yield of 22.14% on the Premium plan. On the Free plan we have placed only 15 bets, for a total stake of 30 units. The total profit on the Free Plan is 9.26 units for a yield of 30.86%.


We have introduced new leagues this season, Turkish, Greek and Belgian leagues. The Belgian league is the one where we placed more bets this season so far, with 11 bets. We placed only 1 bet in the Turkish Super Lig and Bundesliga and no bets (yet) in the Greek League.

We have started our season keeping the stakes as in the last season. We have started with a bankroll of 150 and kept the stakes at 2 units (conservatively slightly below 2%). We made an overall profit of 22.14 units, with most of it coming from La Liga bets. We were profitable on all leagues apart from Belgian, Eredivisie and Premier League. La Liga was the most profitable league, with a profit of 16.44 units. The Belgian League was the least profitable with a loss of 9.18 units so far.



Looking at the yield (the ratio between wins and total stakes for each league) we have some more insights. We must be aware of the fact that is just the start of the season so some numbers are bound to go down. The league with the best yield so far is the Turkish Super Lig with 277%. Only 1 bet there so the number is subject to high variance. We placed a good nmber of bets on Ligue 1 and La Liga and they have 8.2% and 100% yield so far. Serie A quite good too with a nice 39% yield. The worst performing is the Premier League, very difficult for us this season. A negative yield of -100% there.



As usual, we define the ROI as the increase in our bankroll divided by our initial bankroll. For this 2020-2021 season start we had an initial bankroll of 150 units and have had an increase of 22.14 units for the Premium tier and an increase of 9.26 units for the Free tier. The ROI is then 14.7% for Premium tier and 6.1% for Free tier. Look at the table below to see examples of bankroll increases for these ROI numbers, if we keep a fixed stake at 2% of the bankroll.

Initial Bankroll Final Bankroll (Free Tier) Final Bankroll (Premium Tier)
100 units 109 units 122 units
200 units 218 units 244 units
500 units 545 units 610 units
1000 units 1090 units 1220 units

Quite a good start of the season. We have not bet on many leagues as much as we liked yet, as the late start of the season prevented us to get stable numbers for the model predictions. After the International Break we are going to have a thick schedule and the number of bets per weekend will increase substantially. In the weekend before the break we had almost 20 bets placed. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions updated weekly.