ALFA DATA BLOG


Our 3rd season of value betting


The third season of value betting with Alfa Data model was a successful one. Over 320 bets were placed across the season. We stacked a total of 644 units and made 36.5 units in profit. This means a yield of 5.6% on the Premium plan.

The league where we placed more bets was La Liga, with 64 bets. The Premier League, Serie A and Bundesliga follow closely. We placed only 11 bet in the Scottish Premiership.


The league where we placed more bets was La Liga, with 64 bets. The Premier League, Serie A and Bundesliga follow closely. We placed only 11 bet in the Scottish Premiership.

Our stakes have been constant across the full season. We have kept them at 2% of the initial bankroll for each bet. With a starting bankroll of 100 units we made an overall profit of 36.5 units, but not all leagues have been equaly profitable. We made a profit on bets placed in La Liga, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Scottish Premier and Serie A. We broke even on Ligue 1 and have made losses in Premier League and Bundesliga. La Liga turned out to be the most profitable league, with 18.3 units made, while Premier League was the least profitable with a total loss of 6.4 units.


We also looked at the yield, as the ratio between wins and total stakes for each league. Surprisingly the Scottish Premiership turns out to be the league with the highest yield, above 30%. The second best is La Liga, just below 15%. The rest of the profitable leagues are around 10% while the worst performing is the Premier League, with a negative yield of -6%.


For our betting strategy we define the ROI as the increase in our bankroll divided by our initial bankroll. For 2020 we started with a bankroll of 100 units and have had an increase of 36.4 units for the Premium tier and an increase of 21.6 units for the Free tier. The ROI is then 36.4% for Premium tier and 21.6% for Free tier. Look at the table below to see examples of bankroll increases for these ROI numbers, if we keep a fixed stake at 2% of the bankroll.

Initial Bankroll Final Bankroll (Free Tier) Final Bankroll (Premium Tier)
100 units 121 units 136 units
200 units 242 units 272 units
500 units 605 units 680 units
1000 units 1210 units 1360 units

Very good 2019/20 season value betting on the top European leagues overall. Premier League and Bundesliga are the only two disappointments. Those leagues are genuinely difficult to model and it's not easy to find satisfactory odds to bet on. Other leagues like Serie A and La Liga have been quite a success on the contrary. The value in La Liga has been very high across all season, with many good opportunities to profit from high odds bets.

We are ready to get the new seaosn going. We have updated the model and added new leagues in it. Some leagues have already started, some others are going to start in the next weekends. This season we will expand and track a total of 11 leagues. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions updated weekly.