ALFA DATA BLOG


The outliers of the 2019/20 season - Aston Villa


This is the second part of our series of articles on the biggest outliers of this 2019/20 season. This time we are going to focus on the Premier League. Leicester and Liverpool seem to be the most over performing at the moment. This is probably due to the superior quality of their offensive production, with Vardy conversion rate at very high levels, for example. But in this article we focus on the bottom of the table, where Aston Villa is involved in the fight to stay up, but shows very interesting statistics.

Aston Villa has quite good offensive stats. Their shot volume is pretty high, they are 5th in the Premier League for number of shots and 4th for shots on target. Their shooting accuracy (ratio of shots on target) is even better, 3rd in the Premier League. Something is missing on the shooting precision (amount of shots on target turning into goals). With 27% they are 4% below the average. This means that Aston Villa has no issues in crating chances, they are even creating good chances that end up as shots on target. Unfortunately their goal production is not as good as it could be. It may be because of lack of quality from their strikers or simply bad luck. If it is bad luck (and it seems to be the case) then the rest of the season may turn out pretty well for them offensively, as regression to the mean should happen for them.

Aston Villa defensive numbers are pretty poor. They are below average pretty much everywhere, from corners to shots. The worst stat is about shots against. They concede a lot, 229 vs 155 Premier League average. It is good news that many of those are actually not on target, so they end up in 13th spot in the league for shots on target conceded. They concede however a lot of corners, with 98 corners conceded they are at the bottom of the table in this statistics. Finally their goalkeeper is not the best either. With 35% keeper score, Aston Villa is 14th in the Premir League for this statistics. Defensive stats show that Aston Villa is quite shaky at the back, they concede a lot and their goal keeper is only average. These defensive numbers actually reflect their position in the table.

Aston Villa has 11 points, versus 24 expected points. Their offensive numbers, we have seen, are very impressive and more than compensate for their poor defensive performance. They should sit upper in the table, maybe around mid table according to their expected stats. They come from a good performance and home win against Newcastle. They have shown many times they are an offensive side, which likes to create chances and shots. On the defensive side they are quite leaky in defense. You can expect them to surprise against big sides that are also not great defensively. Their next match is against Man United away. They could get a surprise result, given that United defense has seemed poor in the recent matches. I would bet on a draw with many goals.

If you want to get more stats from Alfa Data, receive picks straight in your inbox and more register here.