ALFA DATA BLOG


The outliers of the 2019/20 season


Many of the Eruopean leagues have played already a good number of matches, Premier League and Serie A are already at Gameweek 10. It is agood tiem to have a look at the teams that are defeating their stats, we can compare their actual performance with the expected one and this can give some insights on how their season is going to look like in the future.

We are going to focus in particular on Serie A, La Liga and Premier League. These leagues see 4 teams that, for some reason or another, are performing significantly better or worse than their underlying stats tell. Lazio in Serie A and Aston Villa in Premier League have very good numbers but this doesn't translate into enough points in the League. Where Leicester and Granada are at the opposite end. These teams have many more points than the numbers would suggest.

In this article we will focus on Serie A and on Lazio in particular. Lazio underlying numbers are quite interesting. We can compare them with the average Serie A ones.

The offensive numbers (on the left) show that Lazio creates a huge amount of goal occasions and they shoot much more than the average team. In fact they are 2nd in serie A for number of shots. They are significantly better than average in terms of shots on target and shot accuracy too (1st in serie A). Their shot precision (percentage of shots on target that convert into goals) is not among the best in serie A. In fact they are pretty average, which suggests they are not overperforming in this respect. In conclusion, Lazio is a very creative side, their attacking numbers are among the best in serie A and their shot conversion is sustainable, not too high. We expect them to keep scoring as they are now through the rest of the season.

Lazio defensive numbers are shown on the right. We can see that they are pretty average both in terms of shots conceded and shots on target conceded. They do marginally well for corners conceded. In general not a very good defensive side, they are mid table in this statistics. Things improve quite a bit if you look at their keeper. Their keeper score is significantly better, with only 19% of shots on target converting into a goal. This makes Strakosha, Lazio goalkeeper, the 3rd best in Serie A. In conclusion we can say that Lazio defensive performance has been pretty average so far, with the exception of their goalkeeper, who is among the best in serie A.

Lazio is currently 4th place in serie A, having beaten Milan in the last match of the league. That match odds for a Lazio away win were at 2.8. We can expect them to keep performing at their level, given that the expected points model has them at 28 points (vs their actual 21 points). A team to keep your eyes on for the rest of the season.

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