ALFA DATA BLOG




A look at a full season of value betting - Part 2


In this second part I will analyse the results of 9 months of betting form the League point of view. I will analyse the profitability of each league, try to find out if there was a league more profitable than others and draw conclusions from this.

First, let's have a look at the number of bets placed per League.

Bundesliga is the league where I placed most of the bets, 45. This may seem quite strange as Bundesliga is the league with the least number of matches among the 5 we focused on. As I repeatedly suggested during the season, Bundesliga however has had the most value bets for a long period of time. Many teams were under performing (Hamburg and Mainz above all) and this definitely contributed to the large number of bets placed in this league. EPL and Liga are the second most popular leagues with 39 bets placed. Ligue 1 and Serie A are probably the leagues with the less variability. This explains why only 33 bets were placed on each of these leagues last season.

Now, let's focus on the total stake and the profits league by league.

The total amount bet reflects closely the number of bets made per league. On top is Bundesliga with 343 £, followed by EPL, Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A. Serie A total stake is only 243 £. If one looks at the profits brought league by league instead things look quite different. The most profitable league is Serie A, with a bit more than 82 £ won. EPL follows closely with 80 £ won. Bundesliga and Liga brought profits too. Surprisingly Ligue 1 turned out to be not a profitable league, I lost more than 30 £ betting on Ligue 1 last season.

A look at the ROI helps understanding the difference between profitability between leagues.

The best performing leagues turn out to be Serie A and EPL. Serie A returned an impressive 33% ROI, EPL very close with 27%. La Liga and Bundesliga have a similar return around 10% (more or less as expected from backtesting the model) while Ligue 1 is the only league with a negative ROI of -12%.

The analysis of betting results league by league has shown some interesting results

  • 4 leagues out of 5 turned out to be profitable last season.
  • Bundesliga has attracted the most bets last season.
  • EPL and Serie A are the most profitable leagues with ROI around 30% or more.
  • Ligue 1 is the only league with negative ROI. The losses on this league are limited to 12% negative ROI.
  • There is a high variability in the leagues ROI. It ranges from 12% to 33% ROI.
Taking into account these results it is probably a good idea for next season to adjust the stake put on single bets. By taking into account the leagues profitability stakes can be for example increased for matches in EPL and Serie A (the two most profitable leagues according to the analysis).

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