A look at my second season of value betting

The season 2019/20 has already started in many countries and soon I will start a new season of value betting in the most important European football Leagues. Before starting I wanted to have a look at the results of the past season and share what I have learnt from them. This is something that I have done last season and I plan to repeat every few months with the goal to improve the strategy I use when betting on those markets.

A good starting point is to have look at the number of bets placed per League.

I placed most bets in La Liga, with a total of 100. This was mainly due to the fact that for most of the season there were several teams over performing their expected points. The usual Atletico Madrid but also teams like Getafe (ended up 20 points above their expected) and Alaves (ended 15 points above the expected). Getafe put up an extremely good defensive performance, being the 2nd best defensive team in La Liga. Unfortunately these teams did not quite regress to the mean as we expected and made us lose some money betting against them. Bundesliga (86 bets) and Ligue 1 (81 bets) are second for bets placed, while Eredivisie and Scottish Premiership are the ones with the fewest bets placed. Those leagues turned out to be the ones with less variability.

Now, let's focus on the total stake and the profits league by league.

As expected the league where I placed the most bets is also the one where the total stake was higher. La Liga however made a negative profit for me last year (like most leagues unfortunately). The most profitable league turned out to be League 1, with a 98€ profit over 81 bets. The less profitable league is instead Serie A, with a combined loss of 110€ over 68 bets. Overall, only 2 out of 8 leagues were profitable last season.

A look at the ROI helps understanding the difference between profitability between leagues.

The best performing leagues turn out to be Ligue 1 and Primeira Liga. Ligue 1 had an ROI of 23 while Primeira Liga was the other league with a positive ROI, with 17% over the whole season. Negative ROI for the rest of the leagues, where the worst performing ones were Scottish Premiership (-34%) and Serie A (-33%).

When did it go wrong? I looked into the monthly data to understand what was the bet return over the months.

I started the season very strongly. Placed the first bet on the 21st of Setember and had 2 very profitable months at the beginning of the season. Unfortunately those 2 moths were followed by an horrible end of 2018, where I lost more than 360€. The rest of the season was more or less even for me and I never recovered from the initial losses.

In conclusion I can say that after a very profitable first season our second season turned out to be much less profitable.

• We lost money overall and the cumulative ROI was -9.8%.
• Only 2 leagues out of 8 turned out to be profitable last season.
• La Liga has attracted the most bets last season.
• Ligue 1 and Primeira Liga are the most profitable leagues with ROI of 23% and 17%

The second season of value betting turned out to be not profitable but one needs to take into account that the model we are using is a long run model and it can take many seasons to even out the variance and make a steady profit. A bad season can happen but it can be followed by a very good season, because the variance in football is very high after all. I balanced my stakes during the season in order to adjust to the decreasing bankroll and still be able to place bets. For the next season I am going to include more data and the predicitions will be for sure more accurate then the season before. This will hopefully reflect in a better performance across all leagues and a better overall ROI.

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Slip 26 May 2019

Our slip for the 26 May 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Italy	SerieA	Fiorentina	Genoa	1	2.3	2	2019-05-26
Italy	SerieA	Torino	Lazio	2	2.75	2	2019-05-26
Italy	SerieA	Cagliari	Udinese	2	3.0	2	2019-05-26

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

The last bets of the season, only Serie A in our selection. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have a total of 3 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 6.

All our odds are fetched from BetFair, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 18-19 May 2019

Our slip for the 18-19 May 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Italy	SerieA	Udinese	Spal	X	4.0	2	2019-05-18
Italy	SerieA	Parma	Fiorentina	2	2.3	2	2019-05-19
Italy	SerieA	Juventus	Atalanta	X	3.0	2	2019-05-19

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have a total of 10 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 20.

All our odds are fetched from BetFair, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 11-12-13 May 2019

Our slip for the 11-12-13 May 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Italy	SerieA	Fiorentina	Milan	X	3.3	2	2019-05-11
Italy	SerieA	Roma	Juventus	X	3.25	2	2019-05-12
Italy	SerieA	Torino	Sassuolo	X	4.0	2	2019-05-12
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Willem II	FC Emmen	X	4.0	2	2019-05-12
Scotland	ScottishPL	St Mirren	Hamilton	X	3.25	2	2019-05-13

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Scottish Premier League, Serie A and Eredivisie for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have a total of 13 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 26.

All our odds are fetched from BetFair, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 3-4-5 May 2019

Our slip for the 3-4-5 May 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Scotland	ScottishPL	Dundee	Hamilton	X	3.25	2	2019-05-04
Italy	SerieA	Genoa	Roma	2	2.0	2	2019-05-05
Italy	SerieA	Parma	Sampdoria	2	2.5	2	2019-05-05
Italy	SerieA	Empoli	Fiorentina	2	2.75	2	2019-05-05

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Scottish Premier League and Serie A for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have a total of 13 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 26.

All our odds are fetched from BetFair, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 28 April 2019

Our slip for the 28 April 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Italy	SerieA	Sampdoria	Lazio	2	2.3	2	2019-04-28
Italy	SerieA	Spal	Genoa	X	2.5	2	2019-04-28
Scotland	ScottishPL	Hibernian	Hearts	X	3.25	2	2019-04-28

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Scottish Preier League and Serie A for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have a total of 11 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 22.

All our odds are fetched from BetFair, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 19-20 April 2019

Our slip for the weekend 19-20 April 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Heracles	Heerenveen	X	4.0	2	2019-04-19
Italy	SerieA	Empoli	Spal	X	3.25	2	2019-04-20

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Eredivisie and Serie A for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have a total of 12 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 24.

All our odds are fetched from BetFair, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 14 April 2019

Our slip for the weekend 14 April 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Willem II	Zwolle	2	3.5	2	2019-04-14
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Heerenveen	Groningen	X	3.5	2	2019-04-14

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Eredivisie for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have a total of 11 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 22.

All our odds are fetched from BetFair, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 30-31 March 2019

Our slip for the weekend 30-31 March 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	Heracles	2	2.69	2	2019-03-30
Scotland	ScottishPL	Hearts	Aberdeen	X	3.3	2	2019-03-30
Scotland	ScottishPL	Motherwell	St Johnstone	X	3.32	2	2019-03-30
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Ajax	PSV Eindhoven	X	4.32	2	2019-03-31
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Utrecht	Feyenoord	2	2.2	2	2019-03-31
Italy	SerieA	Inter	Lazio	X	3.31	2	2019-03-31
Italy	SerieA	Frosinone	Spal	2	2.79	2	2019-03-31
Scotland	ScottishPL	Celtic	Rangers	X	3.76	2	2019-03-31

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie, Scottish Premier League for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have a total of 16 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 32.

2 All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 16-17 March 2019

Our slip for the weekend 16-17 March 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Italy	SerieA	Spal	Roma	2	2.1	2	2019-03-16
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Excelsior	Zwolle	2	2.37	2	2019-03-17
Italy	SerieA	Milan	Inter	X	3.11	2	2019-03-17

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A and Eredivisie for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 13 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 26.

2 All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 9-10 March 2019

Our slip for the weekend 9-10 March 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Willem II	Graafschap	X	4.21	2	2019-03-09
Italy	SerieA	Parma	Genoa	2	2.57	2	2019-03-09
Italy	SerieA	Fiorentina	Lazio	X	3.44	2	2019-03-10

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A and Eredivisie for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 13 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 26.

2 All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 23-24 February 2019

Our slip for the weekend 23-24 February 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	For Sittard	Heerenveen	X	3.88	2	2019-02-23
Italy	SerieA	Chievo	Genoa	2	2.27	2	2019-02-24
Italy	SerieA	Fiorentina	Inter	X	3.27	2	2019-02-24

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 23 bets this week. The wager stays at 2 for a total stake of 46.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 16-17 February 2019

Our slip for the weekend 16-17 February 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Italy	SerieA	Cagliari	Parma	X	3.52	2	2019-02-16
Italy	SerieA	Atalanta	Milan	X	3.55	2	2019-02-16
Italy	SerieA	Spal	Fiorentina	2	2.34	2	2019-02-17
Italy	SerieA	Empoli	Sassuolo	2	2.72	2	2019-02-17
Italy	SerieA	Genoa	Lazio	2	2.34	2	2019-02-17

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 11 bets this week. The wager is down to 2 for a total stake of 22.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 9 February 2019

Our slip for the weekend 9-10 February 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Heerenveen	Zwolle	X	3.75	2.5	2019-02-09
Netherlands	Eredivisie	VVV Venlo	Willem II	1	2.38	2.5	2019-02-09

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Eredivisie for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 21 bets this week. The wager is down to 2 for a total stake of 42.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 2-3 February 2019

Our slip for the weekend 2-3 February 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Willem II	Groningen	2	2.67	2.5	2019-02-02
Scotland	ScottishPL	Hibernian	Aberdeen	X	3.39	2.5	2019-02-02
Scotland	ScottishPL	Motherwell	Livingston	X	3.12	2.5	2019-02-02
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Den Haag	Heracles	X	3.71	2.5	2019-02-03
Italy	SerieA	Udinese	Fiorentina	2	2.18	2.5	2019-02-03

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Scottish Premier League and Eredivisie for this weekend. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 18 bets this week. The wager is up to 3 for a total stake of 54.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 26-27-28 January 2019

Our slip for the weekend 26-27-28 January 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	VVV Venlo	FC Emmen	X	3.52	2.5	2019-01-26
Italy	SerieA	Sassuolo	Cagliari	1	2.05	2.5	2019-01-26
Scotland	ScottishPL	Aberdeen	Kilmarnock	X	3.52	2.5	2019-01-26
Scotland	ScottishPL	Hearts	St Johnstone	X	3.55	2.5	2019-01-26
Italy	SerieA	Parma	Spal	2	3.3	2.5	2019-01-27
Italy	SerieA	Empoli	Genoa	X	3.65	2.5	2019-01-28

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Scottish Premier League and Eredivisie for the first slip of the season. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 20 bets this week. The wager is reduced to 2 for a total stake of 40.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 19-20-21 January 2019

Our slip for the weekend 19-20-21 January 2019.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Den Haag	VVV Venlo	X	3.48	2.5	2019-01-19
Italy	SerieA	Udinese	Parma	1	2.15	2.5	2019-01-19
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	For Sittard	2	2.1	2.5	2019-01-20
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Willem II	NAC Breda	2	4.06	2.5	2019-01-20
Italy	SerieA	Genoa	Milan	2	2.42	2.5	2019-01-21

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A and Eredivisie for the first slip of the season. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 26 bets this week. The wager is reduced to 2.5 for a total stake of 65.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 21-22-23 December 2018

Our slip for the weekend 21-22-23 December 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	VVV Venlo	Zwolle	2	2.82	4	2018-12-21
Italy	SerieA	Empoli	Sampdoria	X	3.43	4	2018-12-22
Italy	SerieA	Milan	Fiorentina	X	3.31	4	2018-12-22
Italy	SerieA	Juventus	Roma	X	4.74	4	2018-12-22
Netherlands	Eredivisie	NAC Breda	Heerenveen	2	2.3	4	2018-12-22
Netherlands	Eredivisie	FC Emmen	Willem II	1	2.49	4	2018-12-23

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A and Eredivisie this week. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 22 bets this week. The wager is reduced to 4 for a total stake of 88.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 14-15-16-17 December 2018

Our slip for the weekend 14-15-16-17 December 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Scotland	ScottishPL	Livingston	Hearts	2	2.48	6.	2018-12-14
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Willem II	Den Haag	2	3.44	6.	2018-12-14
Scotland	ScottishPL	St Johnstone	Motherwell	X	3.55	6.	2018-12-15
Italy	SerieA	Spal	Chievo	1	2.07	6.	2018-12-16
Italy	SerieA	Frosinone	Sassuolo	2	2.09	6.	2018-12-16
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Heerenveen	Utrecht	X	3.64	6.	2018-12-16
Italy	SerieA	Atalanta	Lazio	X	3.64	6.	2018-12-17

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 15 bets this week. The wager is reduced to 6 for a total stake of 90.

Scottish Premier starts early.
Hearts are picked form the model to win away. They ahve huge offensive output, almost double that of Livingston. Defensively they concede a bit more but theit expected points are higher than their actual ones. Very good odds for the away win.

In Eredivisie the best pick is Herenven-Utrecht.
The model predicts a draw. The two teams expected poitns are almost the same, around 21. Herenven has lower offensive output but they ahve a very high shooting accuracy, best in the league. On the other hand Utrecht accuracy is quite poor. Their defensive output seems to be very similar, with a slight avantage to Utrecht. The home factor also plays a role. Best value on a draw for this match.

The most exciting game in Serie A is Atalanta Lazio.
The two teams are quite offensive. Fourth and fifth for shots in serie A. Atalanta has higher expected points, but the stats of the two teams are incredibly similar. Only 2 shots and 1 corner difference between them. Also defensively they have very similar stats, with Atalanta conceding less corners overall (they are second in the league for this stat). Odds above 3 for a draw. High chances for that.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip 24-25-26 November 2018

Our slip for the weekend 24-25-26 November 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	For Sittard	Heracles	X	3.59	8.5	2018-11-24
Italy	SerieA	Parma	Sassuolo	2	2.47	8.5	2018-11-25
Italy	SerieA	Bologna	Fiorentina	2	2.11	8.5	2018-11-25
Italy	SerieA	Genoa	Sampdoria	X	3.3	8.5	2018-11-25
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Willem II	Vitesse	2	2.16	8.5	2018-11-25
Italy	SerieA	Cagliari	Torino	2	2.57	8.5	2018-11-26

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 18 bets this week and we have reduced our bankroll to 340. The wager is reduced to 8.5 for a total stake of 153.

Eredivisie with an early match as usual.
Fortuna Sittard has 18 expected poitns against 19 from Heracles. The 2 sides look very similar. Fortuna has better defensive numbers. Offensivelt the 2 teams look comparable. High shooting accuracy for Heracles. Would say slight advantage for the home team but the best value is for a draw.

The most exciting game on Saturday is the Lanterna derby. Genoa and Sampdoria have only 1 point difference and the expected points tell the same story. Genoa seems to play a more offensive football, they have a good attack. Defensively Sampdoria is a better team. Odds above 3 for a draw. High chances for that.
Another serie A match on Sunday. The win of Torino in Cagliari seems unlikely on paper but numbers tell a different story. The away team is more or less on par with its exected points. Cagliari is overperforming. They outperform Torino only for corners and Torino has the number to stay in the top 10, with their keeper the 6th best in serie A. Away win here at decent odds.

The most exciting game on Saturday is the Lanterna derby. Genoa and Sampdoria have only 1 point difference and the expected points tell the same story. Genoa seems to play a more offensive football, they have a good attack. Defensively Sampdoria is a better team. Odds above 3 for a draw. High chances for that.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip Result 9-10-11 November 2018

Our slip results for the loong weekend 9-10-11 November 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Win
Scotland	ScottishPL	Aberdeen	Hibernian	X	3.46	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Levante	Sociedad	X	3.38	11.	-11.0
England	PremierLeague	Crystal Palace	Tottenham	X	3.73	11.	-11.0
England	PremierLeague	Cardiff	Brighton	1	2.58	11.	17.38
England	PremierLeague	Southampton	Watford	X	3.34	11.	25.74
France	Ligue1	Nimes	Nice	1	2.52	11.	-11.0
France	Ligue1	Toulouse	Amiens	X	3.19	11.	-11.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	VVV Venlo	For Sittard	2	3.82	11.	-11.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Nurnberg	Stuttgart	1	2.48	11.	-11.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Werder Bremen	M'gladbach	X	3.76	11.	-11.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Freiburg	Mainz	X	3.44	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Getafe	Valencia	1	2.91	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Valladolid	Eibar	1	2.43	11.	-11.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Nacional	Maritimo	X	3.4	11.	-11.0
France	Ligue1	Marseille	Dijon	X	5.32	11.	-11.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Heracles	Feyenoord	X	4.22	11.	-11.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Groningen	Heerenveen	2	2.94	11.	-11.0
Italy	SerieA	Milan	Juventus	X	3.9	11.	-11.0
Italy	SerieA	Chievo	Bologna	2	2.69	11.	-11.0
Italy	SerieA	Empoli	Udinese	X	3.39	11.	-11.0
Italy	SerieA	Atalanta	Inter	X	3.46	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Vallecano	Villarreal	2	2.34	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Celta	Real Madrid	X	4.65	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Sevilla	Espanol	2	4.91	11.	-11.0
					Total Stake	264.0
					Total wins		-198.88
					ROI	-75.33%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip 9-10-11 November 2018

Our slip for the weekend 9-10-11 November 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Scotland	ScottishPL	Aberdeen	Hibernian	X	3.46	11.	2018-11-09
Netherlands	Eredivisie	VVV Venlo	For Sittard	2	3.82	11.	2018-11-10
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Heracles	Feyenoord	X	4.22	11.	2018-11-11
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Groningen	Heerenveen	2	2.94	11.	2018-11-11
Italy	SerieA	Milan	Juventus	X	3.9	11.	2018-11-11
Italy	SerieA	Chievo	Bologna	2	2.69	11.	2018-11-11
Italy	SerieA	Empoli	Udinese	X	3.39	11.	2018-11-11
Italy	SerieA	Atalanta	Inter	X	3.46	11.	2018-11-11

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 24 bets this week and we come from a very positive week. The wager is reduced to 11 for a total stake of 264. That is slightly more than half of our total bankroll.

Let's start from Eredivisie.
Fortuna Sittard is a good side. Shot volume is very good and they have a very high shooting accuracy. Venlo is overperforming, their keeper is the third best in the league. The away win is very probable, with great odds.

In Serie A Milan-Juventus has great odds for a draw. The away side is a very good side. They have a high shooting accuracy and shot and corner volume. Not so good in defence, keeper is one of the worst in Serie A. Great odds for a draw.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip Result 2-3-4-5 November 2018

Our slip results for the loong weekend 2-3-4-5 November 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Win
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Ein Frankfurt	2	2.42	11.	15.62
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Excelsior	Groningen	1	2.64	11.	-11.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Boavista	Guimaraes	X	3.22	11.	24.42
Scotland	ScottishPL	Hamilton	Livingston	2	2.59	11.	-11.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Leverkusen	Hoffenheim	2	3.12	11.	23.32
Netherlands	Eredivisie	NAC Breda	Heracles	2	2.45	11.	-11.0
France	Ligue1	Nice	Amiens	X	3.89	11.	-11.0
France	Ligue1	Caen	Rennes	2	2.24	11.	13.64
France	Ligue1	Dijon	Nimes	X	3.46	11.	-11.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Santa Clara	Sp Lisbon	X	4.01	11.	-11.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Feirense	Tondela	2	3.48	11.	27.28
Italy	SerieA	Sampdoria	Torino	X	3.35	11.	-11.0
Italy	SerieA	Chievo	Sassuolo	2	2.15	11.	12.65
Scotland	ScottishPL	Kilmarnock	Aberdeen	X	3.29	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Eibar	Alaves	2	3.95	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Huesca	Getafe	2	2.25	11.	-11.0
Spain	Liga	Sociedad	Sevilla	X	3.66	11.	29.26
Spain	Liga	Betis	Celta	2	4.34	11.	-11.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Utrecht	Den Haag	X	4.3	11.	-11.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	For Sittard	Zwolle	X	3.69	11.	-11.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Chaves	Aves	2	3.86	11.	31.46
Spain	Liga	Espanol	Ath Bilbao	1	2.02	11.	11.22
					Total Stake	242.0
					Total wins		45.87
					ROI	18.95%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip 2-3-4 November 2018

Our slip for the weekend 2-3-4 November 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Excelsior	Groningen	1	2.64	11.	2018-11-02
Scotland	ScottishPL	Hamilton	Livingston	2	2.59	11.	2018-11-03
Netherlands	Eredivisie	NAC Breda	Heracles	2	2.45	11.	2018-11-03
Italy	SerieA	Sampdoria	Torino	X	3.35	11.	2018-11-04
Italy	SerieA	Chievo	Sassuolo	2	2.15	11.	2018-11-04
Scotland	ScottishPL	Kilmarnock	Aberdeen	X	3.29	11.	2018-11-04
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Utrecht	Den Haag	X	4.30	11.	2018-11-04
Netherlands	Eredivisie	For Sittard	Zwolle	X	3.69	11.	2018-11-04

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

After the last negative week the Wager goes down to 11, to preserve our bankroll. We always bet 2.5% of the bankroll and the total wager should never go above half of the total bankroll.

Let's start from Eredivisie.
Great odds for Excelsior win vs Groeningen. Excelsior definitely deserve their table spot. A decent side that is performing as expected. They can get a home win and the odds are tasty.

In Serie A the most interesting match is Sampdoria-Torino. Torino is a good side, Sampdoria is slightly over performing. Main reason I think is their keeper is the best second in the league. Torino has better offensive numbers overall and the teams are very close for defensive stats. Great odds for a draw.

Scottish Premier League now. We bet on a draw in Kilmarnock-Aberdeen. The home team is performing better than their numbers would suggest. Above average shooting accuracy and great keeper it seems. Thei two teams offensive and defensive numbers are basically the same. With the odds so high a draw seems to offer the best value.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip Result 26-27 October 2018

Our slip results for the weekend 26-27 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Win
Spain	Liga	Valladolid	Espanol	2	2.4	14.	-14.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Guimaraes	Sp Braga	2	2.16	14.	-14.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Nacional	Portimonense	2	2.64	14.	22.96
Netherlands	Eredivisie	FC Emmen	VVV Venlo	X	3.46	14.	34.44
France	Ligue1	Nimes	St Etienne	X	3.44	14.	34.16
Spain	Liga	Girona	Vallecano	2	4.55	14.	-14.0
Spain	Liga	Celta	Eibar	1	2.26	14.	17.64
Spain	Liga	Ath Madrid	Sociedad	X	4.07	14.	-14.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Rio Ave	Chaves	X	3.69	14.	-14.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Fortuna Dusseldorf	Wolfsburg	X	3.36	14.	-14.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	Excelsior	2	2.61	14.	-14.0
Italy	SerieA	Torino	Fiorentina	2	3.06	14.	-14.0
France	Ligue1	Toulouse	Montpellier	2	2.78	14.	24.92
France	Ligue1	Guingamp	Strasbourg	2	3.36	14.	-14.0
England	PremierLeague	Brighton	Wolves	2	2.49	14.	-14.0
Spain	Liga	Alaves	Villarreal	2	2.43	14.	-14.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Sp Lisbon	Boavista	X	2.57	14.	-14.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Moreirense	Maritimo	X	3.32	14.	-14.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Nurnberg	Ein Frankfurt	2	2.24	14.	-14.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Werder Bremen	Leverkusen	1	2.29	14.	-14.0
France	Ligue1	Bordeaux	Nice	1	2.37	14.	-14.0
England	PremierLeague	Man United	Everton	X	3.87	14.	-14.0
					Total Stake	308
					Total Wins		-103.88
					ROI	-33.73%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip 26-27 October 2018

Our slip for the weekend 26-27 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	FC Emmen	VVV Venlo	X	3.46	14.	2018-10-26
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	Excelsior	2	2.61	14.	2018-10-27
Italy	SerieA	Torino	Fiorentina	2	3.06	14.	2018-10-27

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

Two matches in Eredivisie this weekend. Many points difference between Venlo and Emmen. The two side look very very similar. Exact same number of shots taken so far, with Emmen a slightly better defence. Less than 1 expected point between them suggest a draw is the most probable result.
The other match in Eredivisie sees Graafschap hosting Excelsior. Away win has great value. The 2 teams have very similar numbers but the model favours Excelsior with 10.8 expected points vs 5.3 for Graafschap.

In Serie A Fiorentina is a very strong offensive side. They match Torino for defensive stats and outscore them for shots, shots on targets and corners. Fiorentina is is also second in the league for shots on target against. Finally Fiorentina has more than 19 expected points (vs Torino 12.3). An away win at those odds offers great value.

Full Slip Result 19-20-21-22 October 2018

Our full slip results for the weekend 19-20-21-22 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Win
Germany	Bundesliga	Ein Frankfurt	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	4.36	9.	-9.0
Spain	Liga	Villarreal	Ath Madrid	X	3.22	9.	19.98
Spain	Liga	Real Madrid	Levante	X	8.62	9.	-9.0
Scotland	ScottishPL	Hearts	Aberdeen	1	2.38	9.	12.42
Scotland	ScottishPL	Motherwell	St Johnstone	1	2.28	9.	-9.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Wolfsburg	Bayern Munich	X	5.08	9.	-9.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Augsburg	RB Leipzig	X	2.44	9.	12.96
Germany	Bundesliga	Schalke 04	Werder Bremen	2	3.77	9.	24.93
England	PremierLeague	Bournemouth	Southampton	X	3.51	9.	22.59
England	PremierLeague	Wolves	Watford	X	3.67	9.	-9.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Utrecht	AZ Alkmaar	2	2.75	9.	-9.0
France	Ligue1	Reims	Angers	2	3.93	9.	-9.0
France	Ligue1	Dijon	Lille	2	2.23	9.	11.07
France	Ligue1	Caen	Guingamp	X	3.4	9.	21.6
Spain	Liga	Vallecano	Getafe	2	3.38	9.	21.42
Spain	Liga	Eibar	Ath Bilbao	2	2.86	9.	-9.0
Spain	Liga	Huesca	Espanol	2	2.18	9.	10.62
Italy	SerieA	Bologna	Torino	2	2.32	9.	-9.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Hertha	Freiburg	X	3.49	9.	22.41
Germany	Bundesliga	M'gladbach	Mainz	X	4.35	9.	-9.0
France	Ligue1	Nice	Marseille	2	2.2	9.	10.8
France	Ligue1	St Etienne	Rennes	X	3.46	9.	22.14
England	PremierLeague	Arsenal	Leicester	X	4.61	9.	-9.0
					Total Stake	207
					Total Wins		+113.94
					ROI	52.75%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip 20-21 October 2018

Our slip for the weeekend 20-21 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Win
Scotland	ScottishPL	Hearts	Aberdeen	1	2.38	10.	2018-10-20
Scotland	ScottishPL	Motherwell	St Johnstone	1	2.28	10.	2018-10-20
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Utrecht	AZ Alkmaar	2	2.75	10.	2018-10-20
Italy	SerieA	Bologna	Torino	2	2.32	10.	2018-10-21

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

Two matches in Scottish Premier. Motherwell home win vs St Johnstone offers great value. The home team is a very good defensive side, has conceded half of the shot St Johnstone conceded so far. Their attaccking returns are similar and Motherwell is at almost 10 expected points vs 5.3 for St Johnstone.

In Serie A Torino can get an away win vs Bologna. The home team looks very poor and their stats show it. They are bottom of the league for corners and they are the worst team in terms of shot accuracy.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our free picks as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and free picks.

Slip Result 5-6-7 October 2018

Our slip results for the weeekend 5-6-7 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Win
Spain	Liga	Ath Bilbao	Sociedad	2	3.79	8.	22.32
England	PremierLeague	Brighton	West Ham	X	3.3	8.	-8.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Santa Clara	Chaves	1	2.3	8.	10.4
Germany	Bundesliga	Werder Bremen	Wolfsburg	X	3.63	8.	-8.0
Spain	Liga	Getafe	Levante	X	3.82	8.	-8.0
Spain	Liga	Girona	Eibar	1	2.14	8.	-8.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Den Haag	Groningen	1	2.15	8.	9.2
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	Heerenveen	X	3.66	8.	-8.0
England	PremierLeague	Leicester	Everton	X	3.52	8.	-8.0
England	PremierLeague	Burnley	Huddersfield	X	3.04	8.	16.32
Italy	SerieA	Cagliari	Bologna	1	2.14	8.	9.12
France	Ligue1	Guingamp	Montpellier	2	2.92	8.	-8.0
France	Ligue1	Angers	Strasbourg	X	3.31	8.	18.48
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Maritimo	Guimaraes	1	2.42	8.	-8.0
Scotland	ScottishPL	Motherwell	Livingston	X	3.34	8.	18.72
Germany	Bundesliga	Fortuna Dusseldorf	Schalke 04	1	3.61	8.	-8.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Mainz	Hertha	X	3.37	8.	18.96
Spain	Liga	Sevilla	Celta	X	4.55	8.	-8.0
Spain	Liga	Ath Madrid	Betis	X	4.02	8.	-8.0
Netherlands	Eredivisie	FC Emmen	For Sittard	X	3.45	8.	19.6
England	PremierLeague	Liverpool	Man City	2	2.86	8.	-8.0
Italy	SerieA	Lazio	Fiorentina	2	4.4	8.	-8.0
France	Ligue1	Bordeaux	Nantes	1	2.35	8.	10.8
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Portimonense	Sp Lisbon	X	2.41	8.	-8.0
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Benfica	Porto	X	3.34	8.	-8.0
Scotland	ScottishPL	Rangers	Hearts	X	4.29	8.	-8.0
Germany	Bundesliga	Freiburg	Leverkusen	1	3.4	8.	-8.0
					Total Stake	216
					Total Wins		+17.92
					ROI	8.29%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip Result 5-6-7 October 2018

Our slip results for the weeekend 5-6-7 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Result
Spain	Liga	Ath Bilbao	Sociedad	2	3.79	8.	+22.32
England	PremierLeague	Brighton	West Ham	X	3.3	8.	-8
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Santa Clara	Chaves	1	2.3	8.	+10.4
Germany	Bundesliga	Werder Bremen	Wolfsburg	X	3.63	8.	-8
Spain	Liga	Getafe	Levante	X	3.82	8.	-8
Spain	Liga	Girona	Eibar	1	2.14	8.	-8
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Den Haag	Groningen	1	2.15	8.	+9.2
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	Heerenveen	X	3.66	8.	-8
England	PremierLeague	Leicester	Everton	X	3.52	8.	-8
England	PremierLeague	Burnley	Huddersfield	X	3.04	8.	+16.32
Italy	SerieA	Cagliari	Bologna	1	2.14	8.	+9.12
France	Ligue1	Guingamp	Montpellier	2	2.92	8.	-8
France	Ligue1	Angers	Strasbourg	X	3.31	8.	+18.48
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Maritimo	Guimaraes	1	2.42	8.	-8
Scotland	ScottishPL	Motherwell	Livingston	X	3.34	8.	+18.72
Germany	Bundesliga	Fortuna Dusseldorf	Schalke 04	1	3.61	8.	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Mainz	Hertha	X	3.37	8.	+18.96
					Total Stake	136
					Total Wins		+51.52
					ROI	37.88%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip 5-6-7 October 2018

Our slip for the weeekend 5-6-7 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Result
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Den Haag	Groningen	1	2.15	8.	2018-10-06
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	Heerenveen	X	3.66	8.	2018-10-06
Italy	SerieA	Cagliari	Bologna	1	2.14	8.	2018-10-06
Scotland	ScottishPL	Motherwell	Livingston	X	3.34	8.	2018-10-06
Netherlands	Eredivisie	FC Emmen	For Sittard	X	3.45	8.	2018-10-07
Italy	SerieA	Lazio	Fiorentina	2	4.4	8.	2018-10-07
Scotland	ScottishPL	Rangers	Hearts	X	4.29	8.	2018-10-07

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

We are launching Premium today so the blog will only be updated with free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

Eredivisie offers some great value. Graafschap and Heerenveen are both at 7 points, pretty much in line with their expected points. Similar defensive and offensive performances. Graafschap has a better attack but concedes more. A draw offer ery good odds.

Serie A with a great fixture at great odds. Away win for Fiorentina vs Lazio. Fiorentina is such a good side. They are in top 4 teams in the league for shooting accuracy and shots conceded. Lazio numbers instead look not so great. They are 13 for shooting accuracy and their expected points is only 9.4. Great odds for an away win.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip Result 28 September-1 October 2018

Our slip results for the weeekend 28 September-1 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Result
France	Ligue1	St Etienne	Monaco	1	2.04	8	8.32
Spain	Liga	Vallecano	Espanol	2	2.7	8	-8
France	Ligue1	Caen	Amiens	X	3.26	8	-8
France	Ligue1	Angers	Guingamp	1	2.12	8	-8
Italy	SerieA	Roma	Lazio	1	2.35	7	9.45
Spain	Liga	Eibar	Sevilla	2	2.27	8	10.16
Scotland	ScottishPL	Kilmarnock	Motherwell	X	3.42	8	-8
England	PremierLeague	Everton	Fulham	X	4.15	8	-8
England	PremierLeague	Arsenal	Watford	X	4.71	8	-8
England	PremierLeague	Chelsea	Liverpool	X	3.59	8	20.72
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Werder Bremen	2	2.72	8	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim	RB Leipzig	X	4.02	8	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Nurnberg	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	3.7	8	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Leverkusen	Dortmund	2	2.51	8	12.08
Germany	Bundesliga	Wolfsburg	M'gladbach	X	3.49	8	19.92
Italy	SerieA	Bologna	Udinese	2	3.04	8	-8
Italy	SerieA	Chievo	Torino	2	2.09	8	8.72
Italy	SerieA	Frosinone	Genoa	2	2.36	8	10.88
Spain	Liga	Huesca	Girona	X	3.34	8	18.72
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Guimaraes	Setubal	2	4.79	7.5	-8
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Nacional	Santa Clara	2	3.65	8	21.20
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Feyenoord	Vitesse	1	2.06	8	8.48
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Groningen	Utrecht	2	2.51	8	-8
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	Willem II	2	2.24	8	-8
England	PremierLeague	Cardiff	Burnley	X	3.12	8	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Ein Frankfurt	Hannover	2	3.96	8	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Augsburg	Freiburg	X	3.47	8	-8
Spain	Liga	Celta	Getafe	1	2.02	8	-8
England	PremierLeague	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	X	3.49	8	-8
					Total Stake	231
					Total Wins		+4.65
					ROI	2.01%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip 28 September-1 October 2018

Our slip for the weeekend 28 September-1 October 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Result
France	Ligue1	St Etienne	Monaco	1	2.04	7.5	2018-09-28
Spain	Liga	Vallecano	Espanol	2	2.7	7.5	2018-09-28
France	Ligue1	Caen	Amiens	X	3.26	7.5	2018-09-29
France	Ligue1	Angers	Guingamp	1	2.12	7.5	2018-09-29
Italy	SerieA	Roma	Lazio	1	2.35	7.5	2018-09-29
Spain	Liga	Eibar	Sevilla	2	2.27	7.5	2018-09-29
Scotland	ScottishPL	Kilmarnock	Motherwell	X	3.42	7.5	2018-09-29
England	PremierLeague	Everton	Fulham	X	4.15	7.5	2018-09-29
England	PremierLeague	Arsenal	Watford	X	4.71	7.5	2018-09-29
England	PremierLeague	Chelsea	Liverpool	X	3.59	7.5	2018-09-29
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Werder Bremen	2	2.72	7.5	2018-09-29
Germany	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim	RB Leipzig	X	4.02	7.5	2018-09-29
Germany	Bundesliga	Nurnberg	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	3.7	7.5	2018-09-29
Germany	Bundesliga	Leverkusen	Dortmund	2	2.51	7.5	2018-09-29
Germany	Bundesliga	Wolfsburg	M'gladbach	X	3.49	7.5	2018-09-29
Italy	SerieA	Bologna	Udinese	2	3.04	7.5	2018-09-30
Italy	SerieA	Chievo	Torino	2	2.09	7.5	2018-09-30
Italy	SerieA	Frosinone	Genoa	2	2.36	7.5	2018-09-30
Spain	Liga	Huesca	Girona	X	3.34	7.5	2018-09-30
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Guimaraes	Setubal	2	4.79	7.5	2018-09-30
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Nacional	Santa Clara	2	3.65	7.5	2018-09-30
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Feyenoord	Vitesse	1	2.06	7.5	2018-09-30
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Groningen	Utrecht	2	2.51	7.5	2018-09-30
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Graafschap	Willem II	2	2.24	7.5	2018-09-30
England	PremierLeague	Cardiff	Burnley	X	3.12	7.5	2018-09-30
Germany	Bundesliga	Ein Frankfurt	Hannover	2	3.96	7.5	2018-09-30
Germany	Bundesliga	Augsburg	Freiburg	X	3.47	7.5	2018-09-30
Spain	Liga	Celta	Getafe	1	2.02	7.5	2018-10-01
England	PremierLeague	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	X	3.49	7.5	2018-10-01

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Many bets and appealing odds today for all 8 Leagues we track. This is the last week we are offering all 8 Leagues for free. From next week we will launch AlfaData Premium. With Premium you will be able to access all the model predictions and tips. If you do not subscribe to Premium you will only be able to access data on 3 Leagues.

We are reducing the amount we wage on each bet because of portfolio management considerations. We do not want our potential negative outcome to hit more than half of our bankroll. This means that even if we lose all of this weekend bets we will still have half of our current bankroll intact. Let's now look at some of these bets and why they offer value.

Espanol away win vs Rayo looks very appealing. Espanol runs at over 14 expected points, Vallecano less than 4. Espanol have better offensive stats and are number 2 in Liga for shots on target. Odd at 2.7 is definitely a good value.

Arsenal does not look solid enough to get more than a draw vs Watford. With only 8.4 expected poitns they have had quite a bit of luck in the past matches. Watford has better stats defensively but very similar attaccking numbers. They have been overperforming too but still have one of the best shooting accuracy of Premier League. Odds at almost 5 make it a very appealing bet.

Another high odd prediction for Setubal victory against Guimaraes. Primeira Liga is a very interesting one. Setubal is low in the table but performing decently. Guimaraes definitely overperforming, they get a lot of shots against and have less than 3 expected points. Here odds are very high too.

Hannover away win vs Eintracht is priced at almost 4. They are both at the bottom of Bundesliga but their numbers tell different stories. Hannover is actually performing decetly in terms of offensive and defensive stats. They could be middle of the table soon. Eintracht has troubles in shooting, last team in the league for shots. They also suffer many shots on target against. An away win looks very possible.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.

Slip Result 21-22 September 2018

Results 21-22 September 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Result
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Heracles	Graafschap	1	2.12	10.	+11.20
Netherlands	Eredivisie	For Sittard	Willem II	X	3.5	10.	+25.00
France	Ligue1	Lille	Nantes	1	2.61	10.	+16.10
Germany	Bundesliga	Nurnberg	Hannover	X	3.37	10.	-10.00
Germany	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim	Dortmund	X	3.73	10.	+27.30
Germany	Bundesliga	Hertha	M'gladbach	X	3.39	10.	-10.00
Spain	Liga	Eibar	Leganes	X	3.31	10.	-10.00
Spain	Liga	Celta	Valladolid	X	3.65	10.	+ 26.50
Spain	Liga	Getafe	Ath Madrid	X	3.35	10.	-10.00
Spain	Liga	Real Madrid	Espanol	2	17.57	10.	-10.00
Spain	Liga	Huesca	Sociedad	X	3.5	10.	-10.00
Italy	SerieA	Parma	Cagliari	X	3.29	10.	-10.00
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Maritimo	Belenenses	X	3.33	10.	+23.30
					Total Stake	130
					Total Wins		+59.40
					ROI	45.69%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

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Slip 21-22 September 2018

My slip below for for 21-22 September 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Odds	Wager	Date
Netherlands	Eredivisie	Heracles	Graafschap	1	2.12	10.	2018-09-21
Netherlands	Eredivisie	For Sittard	Willem II	X	3.5	10.	2018-09-22
France	Ligue1	Lille	Nantes	1	2.61	10.	2018-09-22
Germany	Bundesliga	Nurnberg	Hannover	X	3.37	10.	2018-09-22
Germany	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim	Dortmund	X	3.73	10.	2018-09-22
Germany	Bundesliga	Hertha	M'gladbach	X	3.39	10.	2018-09-22
Spain	Liga	Eibar	Leganes	X	3.31	10.	2018-09-22
Spain	Liga	Celta	Valladolid	X	3.65	10.	2018-09-22
Spain	Liga	Getafe	Ath Madrid	X	3.35	10.	2018-09-22
Spain	Liga	Real Madrid	Espanol	2	17.57	10.	2018-09-22
Spain	Liga	Huesca	Sociedad	X	3.5	10.	2018-09-21
Italy	SerieA	Parma	Cagliari	X	3.29	10.	2018-09-22
Portugal	PrimeiraLiga	Maritimo	Belenenses	X	3.33	10.	2018-09-22

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

We are starting the new season with more Leagues, more bets and an updated model, which will hopefully inrease our wins.
The model has selected a total of 13 matches across 6 leagues. Let's got through the best ones in detail.

In Eredivisie, Heracles are a little bit overperforming but their numbers are solid. More shots than Graafschap, fourth place in the League for shots on target. An home win at good odds.

In Bundesliga, Hoffenheim has 0.2 expected points more than Dortmund. The two sides have very similar stats, with Hoffenheim better offensively but also less strong defensively. It should be a tight match. Very good odds for a draw.

La Liga offers very interesting matches, with a lot of value in draws. The model has selected a potential for a big shocking win of Espanol vs Real Madrid. It is a risky bet, but it's backed by a very good season so far by Espanol. They have more expected points than Real Madrid, more shots and more corners. Defensively a bit worse thatn Real but these odds offer amazing value.

Primeira Liga is another new entry. Belenenses has great chances to draw against Maritimo. They have not performed as they could so far but the two teams have very similar stats. Belenenses in particular has a great shooting accuracy and keeper score (third in the league). High odds for a draw.

This is just a preview of what the new season of Alfa Data will offer. From next week you will have the chance to follow all stats and bets for 3 major European leagues for free.
We will also launch a Premium offer with access to stats and bets for 8 big European leagues and more.

Register to have access to all statistics and points predictions from the model.

A look at a full season of value betting - Part 2

In this second part I will analyse the results of 9 months of betting form the League point of view. I will analyse the profitability of each league, try to find out if there was a league more profitable than others and draw conclusions from this.

First, let's have a look at the number of bets placed per League.

Bundesliga is the league where I placed most of the bets, 45. This may seem quite strange as Bundesliga is the league with the least number of matches among the 5 we focused on. As I repeatedly suggested during the season, Bundesliga however has had the most value bets for a long period of time. Many teams were under performing (Hamburg and Mainz above all) and this definitely contributed to the large number of bets placed in this league. EPL and Liga are the second most popular leagues with 39 bets placed. Ligue 1 and Serie A are probably the leagues with the less variability. This explains why only 33 bets were placed on each of these leagues last season.

Now, let's focus on the total stake and the profits league by league.

The total amount bet reflects closely the number of bets made per league. On top is Bundesliga with 343 £, followed by EPL, Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A. Serie A total stake is only 243 £. If one looks at the profits brought league by league instead things look quite different. The most profitable league is Serie A, with a bit more than 82 £ won. EPL follows closely with 80 £ won. Bundesliga and Liga brought profits too. Surprisingly Ligue 1 turned out to be not a profitable league, I lost more than 30 £ betting on Ligue 1 last season.

A look at the ROI helps understanding the difference between profitability between leagues.

The best performing leagues turn out to be Serie A and EPL. Serie A returned an impressive 33% ROI, EPL very close with 27%. La Liga and Bundesliga have a similar return around 10% (more or less as expected from backtesting the model) while Ligue 1 is the only league with a negative ROI of -12%.

The analysis of betting results league by league has shown some interesting results

• 4 leagues out of 5 turned out to be profitable last season.
• Bundesliga has attracted the most bets last season.
• EPL and Serie A are the most profitable leagues with ROI around 30% or more.
• Ligue 1 is the only league with negative ROI. The losses on this league are limited to 12% negative ROI.
• There is a high variability in the leagues ROI. It ranges from 12% to 33% ROI.

Taking into account these results it is probably a good idea for next season to adjust the stake put on single bets. By taking into account the leagues profitability stakes can be for example increased for matches in EPL and Serie A (the two most profitable leagues according to the analysis).

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A look at a full season of value betting

In this article I will look back at the first season spent on value betting on matches from the top 5 European Leagues. I will show the results and some numbers around them. I will show which were the most profitable bets and try to understand the factors behind the bets I won.

Let's look at the amount of money bet first. My initial bankroll was 200£ and I set the initial amount on each bet at 5£. This is 2.5% of the bankroll and I tried to keep this rato stable over the season.
I placed a total of 190 bets over these 9 months. 85 of these were placed on a Draw and 105 on a home or away win. Notice that 45% of the bets were placed on a Draw.

The total amount won placing these bets is 194.38 £. I won 64.02 £ betting on draws and 130.36 £ on an home/away win. It looks like bets on away/home wins were more profitable in the end.

Over these 9 months the total amount stacked on bets amounts to 1443 £. The total ROI calculated as the ratio between total amount won and amount stacked is around 13%. This is a very good ROI and it allowed me to almost double my initial bankroll. Bets on draws gave an ROI just below 10% while bets on wins gave and ROI above 16%. A big difference that confirms bets on wins to be more profitable overall.

Out of the 190 bets placed the most profitable (as amount won) was the bet on Leipzig-Hamburg, at 4.54 odds. This ended in a draw and gave me a profit of 31.86 £.

Of course not all the months were profitable, below I show the performance of this strategy over the month of October 2017 to May 2018.

Month	Number of Bets	Total Stake	Won	ROI
October	26	130	32.70	25%
November	26	182	-11.69	-6.4%
December	12	81	81.09	100%
January	32	267	76.32	28%
February	12	108	-59.76	-55%
March	4	32	-0.32	-1%
April	49	394	42.60	10%
May	26	234	5.94	2%
-	-	-	-	-
Total	187	1428	166.88	11.7%
Monthly Average	23.3	178	20.8	32.5%

Over the course of 8 months I had a few negative ones. In February I lost more than 55 £, for a record negative ROI of -55%. Months with negative ROI were only 2 over these 8 months. I had 5 profitable months and one month (March) with very small loss.

The average ROI has been 32% with a maximum value of 100% in December. There is a high variance in the ROI but the model definitively has some predictive power and it yields profits over a long enough betting period.

Bankroll management and being able to identify bets with value are very important factors when designing a betting strategy. The more time passes the more I see betting as an investment opportunity. It's risky but not more than investing in stocks. It's important to be persistent and not give up when things are going bad. But it's important to be active and adjust the betting strategy to your bankroll.

I have taken a break this Summer but I will start again once the big leagues are back. In 2017/2018 season the model focused exclusivey on the top 5 leagues in Europe. For the next season I plan to apply the model on more leagues, which will increase the number of bets per month at least a factor 2. If I can manage to keep the same ROI while at the same time increase the bet volume of a factor 2 this will double bet earnings.

According to my research done on past performance there should be a some minimal difference between profitability between the leagues. This can reflect in bets on some leagues bringing more profits than others. Also, the difference may have the effect on changing the error associated to the model predictions. Results on some of these bets will then be more reliable and in principle it could be better to focus most bets on these reliable/high profitability leagues. For all these reason, in the second part of this blog post I plan to present an analysis on the model performance league by league. Stay tuned.

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Slip 19-20 May 2018

My slip below for for 19-20 May 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
Italy	Serie A	Cagliari	Atalanta	2	9	2.250
Italy	Serie A	Genoa	Torino	2	9	2.660
Spain	La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	Espanyol	1	9	2.070
France	Ligue 1	Rennes	Montpellier	X	9	3.550
France	Ligue 1	Dijon	Angers	X	9	3.740
				Total	45
				ROI

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Not many matches this week as Premier and Bundesliga have already ended. Serie A still very interesting but also risky. We selected two matches with value. Atalanta runs 10 points behind the expected and their numbers are much better than Cagliari. Could be risky as Cagliari will play not to relegate. Good value anyway.
Genoa is 7 points above expected and we don't see it winning against Torino. Torino numbers are much better, with a keeper in the best 5 in serie A. Great value for an away win.

In La Liga, good value for the home win of Athletic Bilbao. They are behind Espanol in the table but their numbers are better everywhere. The odds for an home win are really good.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Montpellier can get a draw against Rennes. They have 5 expected points more than the rival and good underlying numbers. Awesome defense, they are second in the league for shots on target against.
Another draw for Dijon vs Angers. Angers is a better team, with a great defense. Dijon is a good attacking side and has hoem advantage. The draw offers amazing value.

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Slip 12-13 May 2018

My slip below for for 12-13 May 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
Italy	Serie A	Torino	SPAL	1	9	2.300
Italy	Serie A	Benevento	Genoa	1	9	2.680
Spain	La Liga	Real Betis	Sevilla	2	9	2.610
Spain	La Liga	Girona	Valencia	2	9	2.620
England	Premier League	West Ham	Everton	X	9	3.500
England	Premier League	Burnley	Bournemouth	X	9	3.590
Germany	Bundesliga	Mainz	Werder Bremen	1	9	2.300
Germany	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim	Borussia Dortmund	1	9	2.320
France	Ligue 1	Amiens	Metz	2	9	4.020
France	Ligue 1	Angers	Nantes	X	9	3.410
				Total	90
				ROI

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Serie A with two matches this week. SPAL has 9 points more than expected and is running more or less in line with expectations. Torino has much better numbers overall and they should get an home win.
Benevento are already relegated and it may be risky to bet on them. But their offensive numbers are much better than Genoa, they should be battling for relegation according to expected points. Genoa has instead overperformed (their keeper is the 2nd in Serie A). Good odds for an home win.

In La Liga, you need to bet against Betis, huge overperformers this season. They are hosting Sevilla, they outperforms them in almost all stats. Away win very likely.
The other match sees Valencia going to Girona, their away win is very likely. They have much better numbers and also running a bit behind their expected points.

Another two Premier League matches this week. West Ham and Everton have incredibly similar numbers. They have 10 points difference but only 2 expected points difference. A draw offers very good value.
Bet also on a draw between Burnley and Bournemouth. The model says Bournemouth is a better side and there are 9 expected points differnece between the two teams. Burnely has the second best keeper in the league this season. An away win is also likely but the best odds are for a draw.

In Bundesliga now, where we selected two matches. Mainz, still underperforming, hosts Werder. They have similar numbers but Mainz has much better shooting accuracy. Also they have 13 points less than expected while Werder is more or less performing as expected. Home win offers the best value.
Hoffenheim plays Borussia Dortmund and the numbers say the two sides are very close. Dortmund is a bit better defensively. Hoffenheim has more expected points (due to better shot precision) and this is why we bet on them to win.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Metz is bottom of the table, but their numbers are not so bad. They are almost 20 points behind the expected and all their stats look better than Amiens (best keeper in the league). An away win offers very good odds here.
Angers is running 6 points behind expected. They have slightly worse offensive numbers than Nantes but much better defensive ones (number 4 in the league for shots against). Good odds for a draw here.

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Slip 5-6 May 2018

My slip below for for 5-6 May 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
Italy	Serie A	Genoa	Fiorentina	2	9	2.030
Italy	Serie A	Lazio	Atalanta	X	9	3.560
Spain	La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	Real Betis	X	9	3.450
England	Premier League	Everton	Southampton	2	9	2.570
England	Premier League	Bournemouth	Swansea	1	9	2.130
England	Premier League	Stoke	Crystal Palace	2	9	2.810
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Hoffenheim	2	9	2.070
Germany	Bundesliga	Borussia Dortmund	Mainz	X	9	5.840
Germany	Bundesliga	Eintracht Frankfurt	Hamburg	X	9	3.980
France	Ligue 1	Toulouse	Lille	1	9	2.240
France	Ligue 1	St Etienne	Bordeaux	X	9	3.480
				Total	99
				ROI

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Serie A with a couple of very interesting match this week. Fiorentina is in a great shape and their numbers confirm it. Offensively much much better than Genoa. Great odds for an away win here.
Lazio is there and always overperforming a bit. Atalanta has similar offensive numbers and running behind in terms of expected points. They can get a draw there, very high odds for a more than likely result.

In La Liga, Bilbao is well down the table but their numbers are not very different from Betis. Bilbao have great shooting accuracy, many corners for and a gret keeper score. They have been unlucky so far. A draw offers good value.

Three Premier League matches in the slip. An away win for Southampton vs Everton offers great odds. They have underperformed so far and they are number 10 in the league for shots and number 5 for corners. Better offensive and defensive numbers than Everton.
Bournemouth home win vs Swansea offers great odds. They are underperforming, while Swansea has 10 more points than expected.
Crystal Palace are also underperformers. Great win last week and they can do it again vs Stoke. Better stats everywhere, number 7 in the league for shots.

In Bundesliga there are three matches worth betting on. Hoffenheim away win vs Stuttgart. Stuttgart with 12 points more than expected is definitely not as good as Hoffenheim, that are performing in line with expectations. Stuttgart has the best keeper in the league, may be the reason for the overperformance.
The usual Mainz, they can get a draw with Borussia Dortmund. Extremely risky but high rewards for this.
Hamburg plays vs Eintracht. They have very similar offensive numbers, Eintracht has a better defence but the odds for a draw are very good vaue.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Toulouse is still underperforming and a win with Lille is likely. Very good odds.
St Etienne and Bordeaux are likely to get a draw, mainly because St Etienne has been overperforming so far. Bourdeaux has better numbers and expected points but the home factor suggest a draw as the most likely result.

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Slip 28-29 April 2018

My slip below for for 28-29 April 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
Italy	Serie A	Torino	Lazio	X	8	4.160	-8
Spain	La Liga	Alaves	Atletico Madrid	X	8	3.200	-8
England	Premier League	Burnley	Brighton	X	8	3.210	17.68
England	Premier League	Huddersfield	Everton	X	8	3.070	-8
England	Premier League	Crystal Palace	Leicester City	1	8	2.110	8.88
Germany	Bundesliga	Wolfsburg	Hamburg	2	8	3.530	20.24
Germany	Bundesliga	Mainz	Leipzig	X	8	3.630	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Schalke 04	Borussia Monchengladbach	X	8	3.680	21.44
France	Ligue 1	Strasbourg	Nice	2	8	2.300	-8
France	Ligue 1	Rennes	Toulouse	X	8	3.570	-8
				Total	80		20.24
				ROI			25.30%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Serie A with an interesting match this week. Lazio is there fighting for a top 4 spot. They have overperformed a bit so far. Can lose points away against Torino.

In La Liga, Atletico is still the biggest overperformer of the league. Alaves is insteasd getting slightly less than deserved. Atletico numbers are better, but the draw offers good value.

Three Premier League matches this weekend. A draw for Brighton vs Burnley offers great value. The 2 sides have incredibly similar offensive numbers. Also, Burnley is still overperforming a lot.
Everton is also overperforming and this is the main reason why we bet against them this week too. Huddersfield can get away with a draw. Great odds.
Crystal Palace are instead underperformers. They have collected less than deserved. Better offensive stats than Leicester, similar defensive stats. It looks like the home win offers great value.

In Bundesliga there are three matches worth betting on. The usual Hamburg, they can get an away win with Wolfsburg. They outperform them in all stats.
Mainz underperforming too. They can turn their luck and get a draw vs Leipzig. The odds are very good value.
Finally Schalke is having a bit of luck up there. Good defense but poor offensive numbers. The model favours a draw vs Gladbach.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Again Nice to get an away win vs Strasbourg. They still have 8 points less than expected, good offensive and defensive numbers, great shot accuracy.
Toulouse is also runnig behind their stats. They may get a draw with Rennes. Good value.

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Results Slip 21-22-23 April 2018

Results for 21-22-23 April 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
England	Premier League	Stoke City	Burnley	X	8	3.290	18.32
England	Premier League	Everton	Newcastle	2	8	3.460	-8
England	Premier League	Watford	Crystal Palace	2	8	2.540	-8
Spain	La Liga	Girona	Espanyol	2	8	4.040	24.32
Germany	Bundesliga	Borussia Dortmund	Bayer Leverkusen	2	8	3.030	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Hamburg	Freiburg	1	8	2.050	8.40
Germany	Bundesliga	Augsburg	Mainz	2	8	3.600	-8
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Werder Bremen	X	8	3.420	-8
France	Ligue 1	Nice	Montpellier	1	8	2.070	8.56
France	Ligue 1	Amiens	Strasbourg	X	8	3.250	-8
				Total	80		11.60
				ROI			14.50%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip 21-22-23 April 2018

My slip below for 21-22-23 April 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
England	Premier League	Stoke City	Burnley	X	8	3.290
England	Premier League	Everton	Newcastle	2	8	3.460
England	Premier League	Watford	Crystal Palace	2	8	2.540
Spain	La Liga	Girona	Espanyol	2	8	4.040
Germany	Bundesliga	Borussia Dortmund	Bayer Leverkusen	2	8	3.030
Germany	Bundesliga	Hamburg	Freiburg	1	8	2.050
Germany	Bundesliga	Augsburg	Mainz	2	8	3.600
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Werder Bremen	X	8	3.420
France	Ligue 1	Nice	Montpellier	1	8	2.070
France	Ligue 1	Amiens	Strasbourg	X	8	3.250

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Premier League matches this weekend all have a lot of value. A draw for Stoke vs Burnley is likely. The 2 sides have very similar numbers and Burnley is overperforming since the start of the season.
Everton is also overperforming and the chances of Newcastle to get an away win are high. They have better offensive numbers and their performance is in line with their stats.
Crystal Palace have collected less than deserved up to now. They have great offensive stats, not so good defensively. A draw offers slightly more value but I decided to go for an away win.

In La Liga, only one match selected. Girona is a better team than Espanyol but they have collected 15 points more than deserved according to the model. There are great odds for an Espanyol away win.

In Bundesliga there are many matches with value. Leverkusen win vs Borussia Dortmund is likely. The 2 teams have impressively similar stats. Dortmund has however colected more than deserved (given their poor shot accuracy) while Leverksen is in line with what is expected.
Hamburg is again on our slip. Same reason, they have underperformed the whole season and they are bound to overperform now. A win vs Freiburg seems very good value.
Mainz underperfomirng too. We bet on them to have some luck these last few matches. An away win vs Augsburg offers great value, given Mainz has better defensive numbers anyway.
Finally Stuttgart and Werder have very similar defensive numbers. Werder better offensively. Given the home advantage we think a draw is the best bet here.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Here we bet on Nice to get a win vs Montpellier. They have 10 points less than expected, good offensive and defensive numbers, great shot accuracy but one of the worst keepers of the league.
Strasbourg has very good numbers, much better than Amiens. Poor shot accuracy and keeper are probably the reason they are neasr the bottom of the table. We bet on a draw, it offers the best value.

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Slip 13-14-15-16 April 2018

My slip below for 13-14-15-16 April 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
Italy	Serie A	Lazio	Roma	2	8	2.560
Italy	Serie A	Milan	Napoli	X	8	3.740
England	Premier League	Newcastle	Arsenal	2	8	2.230
Spain	La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	Deportivo La Coruna	X	8	3.960
Spain	La Liga	Eibar	Alaves	X	8	3.440
Spain	La Liga	Girona	Real Betis	2	8	3.170
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Hannover	2	8	4.190
Germany	Bundesliga	Mainz	Freiburg	1	8	2.340
Germany	Bundesliga	Hoffenheim	Hamburg	X	8	4.760
France	Ligue 1	Caen	Toulouse	X	8	3.170

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Some Serie A to start with. Roma is 10 expected poitns clear of Lazio, number 1 in serie A for shots, impressive stats overall. Great value on Roma to win the Derby.
Risky bet on Milan, who is hugely underperforming and should get some points back. Chance to get a draw against Napoli is high.

Premier League offers only one match with value. Arsenal win at Newcastle is both expected and with great odds. Bet on it.

In La Liga, Deportivo La Coruna is one of our favourite teams. They should get at least a draw versus Bilbao, it's a long time Deportivo is underperforming.
Eibar again this week. We bet again against them, Alaves can get a draw, they have a good keeper (number 10 in La Liga) and decent numbers. Good value for a draw.
Betis away win against Girona is more likely than the table shows. Girona is overperforming by 14 points and Betis shooting accuracy will be a factor here.

In Bundesliga there are 3 interesting matches to bet on. Hannover away win offers good value. They have better offensive numbers than Stuttgart.
Mainz is one of the underperfomers of the League. It's time for them to get a win and against Freiburg this seems likely.
Finally we see value in a draw between Hamburg and Hoffenheim. Hamburg has good underlying numbers and have achieved less than expected so far.

One match in Ligue 1. Here we bet on Toulouse to get a draw vs Caen. They have 9 points less than expected and have very nice numbers.

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Slip 6-7-8 April 2018

My slip below for the weekend 6-7-8 April 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
Italy	Serie A	Crotone	Bologna	X	9	3.180
Italy	Serie A	Roma	Fiorentina	X	9	3.810
Spain	La Liga	Deportivo La Coruna	Malaga	1	9	2.060
Spain	La Liga	Real Betis	Eibar	1	9	2.260
England	Premier League	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	X	9	3.480
England	Premier League	Leicester	Newcastle	X	9	3.540
England	Premier League	Watford	Burnley	1	9	2.330
Germany	Bundesliga	Hamburg	Schalke 04	X	9	3.390
Germany	Bundesliga	Koln	Mainz	2	9	3.590
France	Ligue 1	Bordeaux	Lille	X	9	3.700

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

We start with Serie A. Crotone is a good team, better than the points show. They have better offensive stats than Bologna (304 vs 279 shots made) and very similar defensive numbers. A draw is the best bet here.
Fiorentina has very good numbers, impressive for number of shots, 3rd in serie A. They can get a draw against Roma.

In La Liga, Deportivo La Coruna underperforming since a while. It should be time for them to get 3 points, very good corners and shots number for them. Malaga is instead performing more or less as expected, they are bottom of the league in almost all stats.
Eibar is still overperforming and Betis too. Betis has however better underlying stats, especially shot accuracy, one of the best in the league. Nice odds for an home win.

3 matches in Premier League where there is value. A draw between Bournemouth and Palace is very likely. Palace has very good numbers, slightly better than Bournemouth. Given the home advantage the model predicts a draw.
A draw between Leicester and Newcastle is also good value. Leicester is overperforming and Newcastle could do better given their shot volume and defensive stats.
A Watford win over Burnley is predicted by the model. The expected ponts of the two teams are very similar but Burnley is overperforming a lot and should start to lose points now.

In Bundesliga there are 2 interesting matches to bet on. A draw between Hamburg and Schalke is likely. Hamburg underlying numbers are not worth of the bottom of the league and they should get some points. On the other hand Schalke is overperforming and they should lose points.
Mainz win against Koln seems to have some value. Koln is a team that concedes a lot (439 shots against, worst in Bundes) and Mainz has pretty good offensive stats.

Last match in Ligue 1. A draw between Bordeaux and Lille is the only result with some value in this fixture. Very similar offensive numbers, even if Bordeaux is a better defensive team.

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Slip 31 March-1 April 2018

My slip below for the weekend 31 March-1 April 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
Spain	La Liga	Girona	Levante	X	8	3.960
Spain	La Liga	Eibar	Real Sociedad	2	8	3.160
Spain	La Liga	Espanyol	Alaves	X	8	3.250
England	Premier League	Chelsea	Tottenham	X	8	3.470
England	Premier League	West Brom	Burnley	X	8	3.120
England	Premier League	West Ham	Southampton	2	8	2.730
Germany	Bundesliga	Mainz	Borussia Monchengladbach	X	8	3.390
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Hamburg	2	8	5.300
France	Ligue 1	Troyes	Nice	2	8	2.390

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

We start with La Liga. Girona is a slightly better team than Levante bnu the model sees them as overperformers. While Levante is a bit underperforming. Good odds for a draw.
Eibar is another overperformer and Sociedad has much better offensive numbers. The model predicts an away win.
Finally a draw between Espanyol and Alaves offers very good odds. Again betting on Espanyol regressing to their expected points.

3 matches in Premier League where there is value. A draw between Chelsea and Tottenham offers very good odds. Their expected points are very similar, Chelsea should have a bit more.
Another good value results is the draw between West Brom and Burnley. Burnley is a better team but should lose some points given their numbers.
At last, Southampton away win offers good value too. The team is underperforming and have better numbers than West Ham pretty much everywhere.

In Bundesliga another 3 interesting matches. A draw between Mainz and Borussia seems likely. The teams have similar expected points and Mainz is heavily underperforming.
Hamburg away win is a very risky match to bet on. The model has always favoured Hamburg this season but they repaid very rarely.

Last match in Ligue 1. Nice should not have problems getting an away win with Troyes. Better offensive and defensive numbers, even if they have one of the poorest goalkeeper of the league.

Slip 3-4 February 2018

My slip below for the weekend 3-4 February 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Results
Italy	Serie A	Bologna	Fiorentina	2	9	2.330	11.97
Spain	La Liga	Eibar	Sevilla	2	9	2.790	-9
Spain	La Liga	Girona	Athletic Bilbao	X	9	3.260	-9
Spain	La Liga	Atletico Madrid	Valencia	X	9	4.460	-9
England	Premier League	West Bromwich	Southampton	2	9	3.030	18.27
Germany	Bundesliga	Hamburg	Hannover	1	9	2.360	-9
Germany	Bundesliga	Augsburg	Eintracht Frankfurt	2	9	3.270	-9
France	Ligue 1	Montpellier	Angers	X	9	3.260	-9
France	Ligue 1	Caen	Nantes	2	9	2.840	-9
				Total	81		-32.76
				ROI			-40%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Slip 3-4 February 2018

My slip below for the weekend 3-4 February 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds
Italy	Serie A	Bologna	Fiorentina	2	9	2.330
Spain	La Liga	Eibar	Sevilla	2	9	2.790
Spain	La Liga	Girona	Athletic Bilbao	X	9	3.260
Spain	La Liga	Atletico Madrid	Valencia	X	9	4.460
England	Premier League	West Bromwich	Southampton	2	9	3.030
Germany	Bundesliga	Hamburg	Hannover	1	9	2.360
Germany	Bundesliga	Augsburg	Eintracht Frankfurt	2	9	3.270
France	Ligue 1	Montpellier	Angers	X	9	3.260
France	Ligue 1	Caen	Nantes	2	9	2.840

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

We start with Serie A where Fiorentina is not performing as expected. Their main problem is the shooting accuracy (17 in serie A) but they shoot a lot and concede very few chances. Both offensive and defensive numbers are bettere than Bologna. Good value for an away win.

Let's look at La Liga. Sevilla away win vs Eibar offers good odds for the model. The two teams have very similar offensive numbers and Eibar is better defensively. Eibar however seems to be overperforming and they have poor shooting accuracy.
Girona and Bilbao have similar offensive numbers. The away team is performing as expected while the home team seems to have more poins than expected. A draw offer the best value here.
At last, Atletico Madrid is hosting Valencia. Valencia seems overall a better team, even if they concede a lot. The home factor favours Atletico so the best value is for a draw here.

In Premier League now where there is a clash at the bottom of the table. Southampton should be able to win against West Brom. Their offensive numbers are better and defensively they are more or less at the same level. Small expected points difference but very good value at these odds.

There are 2 matches with value in Bundesliga. The usual Hamburg side that has good odds to win vs Hannover. Hamburg is the most underperforming team of the league, according to their stats.
The other match with value is Eintracht (slightly underperforming) to win away against Augsburg (slightly overperforming). Looking at their numbers they are pretty similar, an away win offers the best value but also a draw is quite likely.

In Ligue 1 there is some value in two matches. Montpellier and Angers have only 0.7 expected points difference. The model sees a great value for a draw here.
Nantes and Caen are both overperforming. Nantes has the home advantage and also one of the best keepers of the league. Caen is a solid team but they almost never shot on target (only 70 so far). The best value here is for an away win.

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Slip 26-27-28 January 2018

My slip below for the weekend 26-27-28 January 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds
Italy	Serie A	Torino	Benevento	X	9	4.800
Italy	Serie A	AC Milan	Lazio	1	9	2.480
Spain	La Liga	Deportivo La Coruna	Levante	1	9	2.000
Spain	La Liga	Leganes	Espanyol	1	9	2.460
Germany	Bundesliga	Leipzig	Hamburg	X	9	4.540
Germany	Bundesliga	Leverkusen	Mainz	X	9	5.180
France	Ligue 1	Toulouse	Troyes	X	9	3.360
France	Ligue 1	Dijon	Rennes	X	9	3.370
France	Ligue 1	St Etienne	Caen	1	9	2.090
France	Ligue 1	Metz	Nice	2	9	2.290

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

We start with Serie A where Benevento is at the bottom of the table. They are not a bad team, shot volume is similar to Torino and they concede slightly more than them. In short Benevento is massively underperforming and their chances to draw in Torino are pretty high.
AC Milan has better numbers than Lazio, shots, corners, shots conceded. Lazio has a great shooting accuracy, number 1 in Serie A and this is the main reason why they are so high in the table. AC Milan is a big favorite here.

Let's look at La Liga. La Coruna and Levante have similar points but La Coruna has almost 4 more expected points. Their numbers are better everywhere. Good odds for an home win again.
Leganes has more than 5 expected points than Espanyol. Their main strength is their defensive numbers, very few shots and one of the best keepers in La Liga. Value on the Home win again.

In Bundesliga there is still value with Hamburg and Mainz. We keep betting on them even if they have tough fixtures. Hamburg has more than 18 points less than expected. The odds for a draw offer the best value for this match.
Leverkusen-Mainz offers the best value for a draw. Leverkusen numbers are a bit better, especially in defense. The odds are very good for a draw given the level of underperformance of Mainz.

In Ligue 1 there is a lot of value in this fixture. Toulouse and Troyes have only 1 expected point difference. Toulouse has better numbers everywhere but not enought to compensate for the expected points.
Dijon-Rennes has a similar story. Their expected points diference is 0.9 and they have the same offensive stats. Another match with great value for a draw.
St Etienne has surprisingly good shot accuracy. Their numbers are a bit worse than Caen but Caen is overperforming (7 points more than expected). The odds for an Home win are very good.
Nice has been overperforming all season. Finally their stats are starting to match their expected points but they still have 5 points less than expected. Metz is at the bottom of the table, they don't have bad numbers but the odds for an away win offer the best value.

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Slip 19-20-21 January 2018

My slip below for the weekend 19-20-21 January 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds
Italy	Serie A	Lazio	Chievo	X	8	6.660
Italy	Serie A	Sampdoria	Fiorentina	2	8	2.470
Italy	Serie A	Cagliari	AC Milan	2	8	2.070
Spain	La Liga	Espanyol	Sevilla	2	8	2.770
Spain	La Liga	Getafe	Atheltic Bilbao	X	8	3.200
England	Premier League	Everton	West Bromwich	X	8	3.130
England	Premier League	Leicester	Watford	X	8	3.860
Germany	Bundesliga	Hamburg	Koln	1	8	2.220
Germany	Bundesliga	Mainz	Stuttgart	1	8	2.640
France	Ligue 1	Rennes	Angers	X	8	3.240
France	Ligue 1	Nantes	Bordeaux	X	8	3.260

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Serie A is back this weekend and there is some value to find there. Lazio is having a great season so far but the model says it's overerforming a little bit. There are 18 points between them and Chievo but only 3 expected points. They concede much less than Chievo but the offensive numbers are pretty much similar. Chievo is also underperforming. The odds for a draw are too high not to bet on it.
Fiorentina is a very good team, their main problem is shooting accuracy (15 in Serie A). Sampdoria is exactly the opposite, very high accuracy but worse numbers than Fiorentina everywhere else. Great odds for an away win.
AC Milan is a better team than Cagliari, all numbers are for them. An away win at just above 2 is great value for the model.

Let's look at La Liga. Sevilla is having a bad form but they have good numbers. They have 3 points less than expected, Espanyol are instead slightly overperforming. The away win is quite likely.
Getafe-Bilbao is a risky bet. The draw seems to have a good value for the model. Very similar numbers, maybe Bilbao a bit better but the home factor moves the needle towards a draw.

There is a lot of value in the Premier League at the moment. The model selects 2 matches in particular. Here we bet against the overperformers Everton (to draw at home vs West Brom) and Leicester (another draw vs Watford). In both cases the numbers are pretty similar but the home advantage favours more a draw than an away win. The odds for a draw are very very high.

In Bundesliga there is value especialy in the bottom of the League. Hamburg and Mainz are the underperformers of Bundes. They both have a home match and numbers slightly better than their opponents. The regression factor plays a big role here and the odds are very good.

In Ligue 1 Rennes and Angers have almost identical defensive numbers. Rennes have better offensive stats but Angers have more expected points. Great odds for a draw.
Nantes and Bordeaux have very similar offensive numbers but Bordeaux has a much better defense (only 67 corners conceded). The home advantage is still a factor however and a draw is the most likely result according to the model.

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Slip 13-14 January 2018

My slip below for the weekend 13-14 January 2018.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds
England	Premier League	Crystal Palace	Burnley	1	8	2.040
England	Premier League	Watford	Southampton	X	8	3.480
England	Premier League	West Brom	Brighton	1	8	2.180
Germany	Bundesliga	Augsburg	Hamburg	2	8	4.340
Germany	Bundesliga	Hannover	Mainz	2	8	3.450
Spain	La Liga	Girona	Las Palmas	X	8	3.970
Spain	La Liga	Alaves	Sevilla	2	8	2.270
France	Ligue 1	Caen	Lille	X	8	2.950
France	Ligue 1	Rennes	Marseille	2	8	2.000
France	Ligue 1	Dijon	Metz	X	8	3.700

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Let's start with Premier League. Palace is finally recovering from the bad start of season and regressing to the mean. Burnley defeats all models, they conceded an impressive number of shots, corners and have very low offensive numbers. Palace is a better team according to all stats and they have home advantage. I am sure Burnley will manage to draw this somehow but I stick with the model.
Watford has better defensive numbers than Southampton. Only 264 shots against and high number of shots too. Southampton is better offensively so the model sees value in a draw.
West Brom underperforming and Brighton doing better than numbers suggest. There are 3 expected points between the two teams. Good odds on West Brom win.

In Bundesliga there is still a lot of value. Hamburg is a good offensive team, they have similar shots and corners to Augsburg but they beat them on shot precision (third in the League). They are underperforming and odds are very good for an away win.
Mainz is very similar to Hamburg, underperforming, great shot precision. Great odds again for an away win.

Let's go for La Liga. Las Palmas is the number one underperformer in La Liga. Girona is instead overperforming. Good combination and nice odds for a draw.
Alaves-Sevilla seems a no brainer. I may be missing something here but ts great odds for Sevilla away win.

In Ligue 1 Caen has similar expected points Lille. A bit risky but good reward for a draw.
Marseille is a much better team than Rennes. Only team above 300 shots with PSG, very good defensive numbers. Good value for an away win at Rennes.
I am impressed by how similar Dijon and Metz underlying numbers are. Metz is severely underperforming so in principle you could bet on an away win which has very high odds if you feel. The model sees slightly more value in a draw.

My first 4 months of value betting

I have started to bet following a model this season. In this post I am going to describe my first attempts, how I built a strategy and the results I reached.

After spending months developing a model for expected points I decided in September to spend a little time and money to validate it in the real world. I deposited 200 £ and started to bet.

At first I tried with Overs but I quickly found out that was not the best strategy as I ended up losing 10 £ in my first 9 bets. The reason is that Alfa Data model predicts expected points much better than expected goals. So I started to focus on 1X2 betting, selecting higher odds and putting a lower amount on each bet. I placed 3 bets in September following this strategy. Here they are.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Result
Italy	Serie A	Udinese	Sampdoria	1	5	2.719	8.55
Germany	Bundesliga	Eintracht Frankfurt	Stuttgart	1	5	2.080	5.40
Spain	La Liga	Leganes	Atletico Madrid	X	5	3.710	13.55

All successful. I bet 15 £ and won more than 25 £. That was the beginning of my strategy.

My attempts and mistakes in the month of September have thought me some lessons that I think are valuable.

• Always bet something between 2-5% of your bankroll on a single bet. Adjust the amount monthly.
• Only bet on Leagues you know (or you have a model for).
• Never ever do accas.
• When in doubt bet on a draw.

These suggestions are valid indipendently from the model used. You can follow them even if you bet using your guts. Let me stress again how is important not to do accas. Accas are the best way to lose money. Betting on a combination of outcomes increases greatly your chances to lose. Even if every bet has very low odds the chance that one of them goes wrong increases exponentially with the number of bets in the acca. It's simple maths. And the bookies know it.

After the first few bets, ath the end of September I had a little more than my initial bankroll of 200 GBP. I decided to place 5 GBP for every bet. This is indeed 2.5% of the bankroll.

The bets above are useful to show the best strategy for this model. First, I decided for a 1X2 type bet. This is perfect for a model that gives you expected points. Second, I identify the over and under performing teams and see if any of them are playing against each other. Third, I check if the odds are high enough for this type of bets. Given past performance of the model I find it's profitable to bet on thse type of matches only when the odds are above 2 more or less. Last, you bet on the team that is underperforming and against the team that is overperforming. You are basically betting on regression to the mean for both teams.

I bet the same amount on each bet. I adjusted the amount bet every month. I kept it at 5 GBP for the whole of October, increased at 7 in November, decreased at 6 for the first bets in December and again increased at 7 for the latest bets. In the future I plan to adjust the amount every week.

The performance of this strategy over the month of October, November and December is shown below.

Month	Number of Bets	Total Stake	Won	ROI
October	26	130	32.70	25%
November	30	182	-11.69	-6.4%
December	12	81	81.09	100%
Total	68	393	102.1	26%
Monthly Average	22.3	131	34.0	39.7%

The sample includes 3 months betting for a total of 68 bets placed. Clearly not a very big sample but big enough to draw some conclusions.

The model seems to have a predictive power. The number of correctly predicted bets is higher than 50%.

The model is profitable. The total profit made is over 100 GBP, which means I increased my bankroll from 200 GBP up to 300 GBP in just 3 months. The profit per bet is 1.50 GBP per bet.

The model has high variance. Looking at the ROI month by month it's pretty clear that the value fluctuates a lot and it will take another couple of months of bets to stabilise.

Overall these 4 months have been productive. The first month was used to tune the strategy and identify the best way to extract value from the model. Luckily it ended up positive too.

In the table below you can see the overall results including September.

Month	Number of Bets	Total Stake	Won	ROI
September	12	75	18.43	24.5%
October	26	130	32.70	25%
November	30	182	-11.69	-6.4%
December	12	81	81.09	100%
Total	80	468	120.5	25.7%
Monthly Average	20	117	34.0	35.9%

Looking back at these 4 months of experiemnts I think the results are positive. Not only financially but also in terms of knowledge gained. I learnt that a model is not enough to design a betting strategy. Bankroll management and being able to identify bets with value are even more important. I see betting as an investment opportunity. It's risky but not more than investing in stocks. At least for betting I have a model and some domain knowledge.

In the next months I will keep monitoring the metrics of the strategy and I can only hope that my performance will be the same, that would mean I will have a bankroll of 750 £ by June. My expectations are lower, based on past performance, the ROI of the model is somewhere closer to 5% than the current 25%.

Results of the weekend 8-9-10 December 2017

The results of this weekend bet.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds	Result
France	Ligue 1	Nantes	Nice	2	7	3.850	19.95
Italy	Serie A	Cagliari	Sampdoria	X	7	3.560	17.92
Spain	La Liga	Valencia	Celta Vigo	X	7	4.270	-7
England	Premier League	Burnley	Watford	X	7	3.260	-7
England	Premier League	Newcastle	Leicester	1	7	2.640	-7
Germany	Bundesliga	Hamburg	Wolfsburg	1	7	2.630	-7
Germany	Bundesliga	Leipzig	Mainz	X	7	5.110	28.77
Spain	La Liga	Alaves	Las Palmas	2	7	3.280	-7
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Bayer Leverkusen	2	7	2.210	8.47
				Total	63		40.11

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Very good weekend. Was able to find value in 9 games and we predicted the outcome of 4 out of 9. We won the riskiest (according to bookies) bet and that alone makes up more than half of our weekend winnings.

Won bets placed in Ligue 1, Serie A and Bundesliga. Lost all bets on Premier and La Liga. The most profitable League was Bundesliga, 2 out of 3 bets won. There is a lot of value there at the moment. Many teams will come up from the bottom and many other will start losing games soon. On the negative side, Burnley and Newcastle keep being extremely difficult teams to predict.

The winnings of this weekend total 40.11 units for a total stake of 63 units. This makes the total December winnings 81.09 units with total stake at 81 units. This result brings the December ROI down (believe it or not) to 100%.

Slip 10 December 2017

My slip below for Sunday 10/12/2017.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds
France	Ligue 1	Nantes	Nice	2	7	3.850

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Only one match today and it's in Ligue 1. There is one bug underperforming team here and it's Nice. They have great shooting accuracy, good number of shots and corners.They concede a bit too much. Nantes has worse offensive numbers and awful defensive ones (105 corners conceded), Their keeper is one of the best in the league. An away win is very likely and the odds are definitely worth a bet.

Slip 9 December 2017

My slip below for Saturday 09/12/2017.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds
Italy	Serie A	Cagliari	Sampdoria	X	7	3.560
Spain	La Liga	Valencia	Celta Vigo	X	7	4.270
England	Premier League	Burnley	Watford	X	7	3.260
England	Premier League	Newcastle	Leicester	1	7	2.640
Germany	Bundesliga	Hamburg	Wolfsburg	1	7	2.630
Germany	Bundesliga	Leipzig	Mainz	X	7	5.110

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

Let's start with Serie A where Cagliari and Sampdoria have impressive similar numbers. I think Samp is over performing since a long time and a draw is the most likely result here.

Let's go for La Liga. Valencia is a big surprise and I will bet against them as often as possible from now on. They concede a lot and Celta has better defensive numbers and very similar offensive ones. Again, the model sees value in a draw.

In Premier League there is only one big over performer, which is Burnley. They should not get more than a draw against Watford. Another team to watch closely is Newcastle. They have very good defensive numbers and they can get a home win vs Leicester.

In Bundesliga there is some value currently. Probably best in Europe to bet on currently. Hamburg is a good offensive team and definitely better than Wolfsburg. Leipzig is over performing a bit and has similar defensive numbers to Mainz. The bet is very risky but the odds are worth it.

Slip 8 December 2017

My slip below for Friday 08/12/2017.

Country	Division	HomeTeam	AwayTeam	Prediction	Wager	Odds
Spain	La Liga	Alaves	Las Palmas	2	7	3.280
Germany	Bundesliga	Stuttgart	Bayer Leverkusen	2	7	2.210

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team

A look at La Liga shows that there is not much value to bet on at the moment. Las Palmas at the bottom of the league currently, should have many more points. Outperforms Alaves in almost all stats. More shots,corners and less shots conceded. Good value in the away win.

In Bundesliga now where there is some value here and there. Leverkusen has very good numbers and should win against an overperforming Stuttgart, with amost 3 points more than expected. A look at the other numbers shows Leverkusen with 70 corners vs 58 and a slightly better defense.