Slip Result 9-10-11 November 2018


Our slip results for the loong weekend 9-10-11 November 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Win
Scotland ScottishPL Aberdeen Hibernian X 3.46 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Levante Sociedad X 3.38 11. -11.0
England PremierLeague Crystal Palace Tottenham X 3.73 11. -11.0
England PremierLeague Cardiff Brighton 1 2.58 11. 17.38
England PremierLeague Southampton Watford X 3.34 11. 25.74
France Ligue1 Nimes Nice 1 2.52 11. -11.0
France Ligue1 Toulouse Amiens X 3.19 11. -11.0
Netherlands Eredivisie VVV Venlo For Sittard 2 3.82 11. -11.0
Germany Bundesliga Nurnberg Stuttgart 1 2.48 11. -11.0
Germany Bundesliga Werder Bremen M'gladbach X 3.76 11. -11.0
Germany Bundesliga Freiburg Mainz X 3.44 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Getafe Valencia 1 2.91 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Valladolid Eibar 1 2.43 11. -11.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Nacional Maritimo X 3.4 11. -11.0
France Ligue1 Marseille Dijon X 5.32 11. -11.0
Netherlands Eredivisie Heracles Feyenoord X 4.22 11. -11.0
Netherlands Eredivisie Groningen Heerenveen 2 2.94 11. -11.0
Italy SerieA Milan Juventus X 3.9 11. -11.0
Italy SerieA Chievo Bologna 2 2.69 11. -11.0
Italy SerieA Empoli Udinese X 3.39 11. -11.0
Italy SerieA Atalanta Inter X 3.46 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Vallecano Villarreal 2 2.34 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Celta Real Madrid X 4.65 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Sevilla Espanol 2 4.91 11. -11.0
Total Stake 264.0
Total wins -198.88
ROI -75.33%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip 9-10-11 November 2018


Our slip for the weekend 9-10-11 November 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Date
Scotland ScottishPL Aberdeen Hibernian X 3.46 11. 2018-11-09
Netherlands Eredivisie VVV Venlo For Sittard 2 3.82 11. 2018-11-10
Netherlands Eredivisie Heracles Feyenoord X 4.22 11. 2018-11-11
Netherlands Eredivisie Groningen Heerenveen 2 2.94 11. 2018-11-11
Italy SerieA Milan Juventus X 3.9 11. 2018-11-11
Italy SerieA Chievo Bologna 2 2.69 11. 2018-11-11
Italy SerieA Empoli Udinese X 3.39 11. 2018-11-11
Italy SerieA Atalanta Inter X 3.46 11. 2018-11-11

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

We have 24 bets this week and we come from a very positive week. The wager is reduced to 11 for a total stake of 264. That is slightly more than half of our total bankroll.

Let's start from Eredivisie.
Fortuna Sittard is a good side. Shot volume is very good and they have a very high shooting accuracy. Venlo is overperforming, their keeper is the third best in the league. The away win is very probable, with great odds.

In Serie A Milan-Juventus has great odds for a draw. The away side is a very good side. They have a high shooting accuracy and shot and corner volume. Not so good in defence, keeper is one of the worst in Serie A. Great odds for a draw.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.



Slip Result 2-3-4-5 November 2018


Our slip results for the loong weekend 2-3-4-5 November 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Win
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Ein Frankfurt 2 2.42 11. 15.62
Netherlands Eredivisie Excelsior Groningen 1 2.64 11. -11.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Boavista Guimaraes X 3.22 11. 24.42
Scotland ScottishPL Hamilton Livingston 2 2.59 11. -11.0
Germany Bundesliga Leverkusen Hoffenheim 2 3.12 11. 23.32
Netherlands Eredivisie NAC Breda Heracles 2 2.45 11. -11.0
France Ligue1 Nice Amiens X 3.89 11. -11.0
France Ligue1 Caen Rennes 2 2.24 11. 13.64
France Ligue1 Dijon Nimes X 3.46 11. -11.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Santa Clara Sp Lisbon X 4.01 11. -11.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Feirense Tondela 2 3.48 11. 27.28
Italy SerieA Sampdoria Torino X 3.35 11. -11.0
Italy SerieA Chievo Sassuolo 2 2.15 11. 12.65
Scotland ScottishPL Kilmarnock Aberdeen X 3.29 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Eibar Alaves 2 3.95 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Huesca Getafe 2 2.25 11. -11.0
Spain Liga Sociedad Sevilla X 3.66 11. 29.26
Spain Liga Betis Celta 2 4.34 11. -11.0
Netherlands Eredivisie Utrecht Den Haag X 4.3 11. -11.0
Netherlands Eredivisie For Sittard Zwolle X 3.69 11. -11.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Chaves Aves 2 3.86 11. 31.46
Spain Liga Espanol Ath Bilbao 1 2.02 11. 11.22
Total Stake 242.0
Total wins 45.87
ROI 18.95%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip 2-3-4 November 2018


Our slip for the weekend 2-3-4 November 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Date
Netherlands Eredivisie Excelsior Groningen 1 2.64 11. 2018-11-02
Scotland ScottishPL Hamilton Livingston 2 2.59 11. 2018-11-03
Netherlands Eredivisie NAC Breda Heracles 2 2.45 11. 2018-11-03
Italy SerieA Sampdoria Torino X 3.35 11. 2018-11-04
Italy SerieA Chievo Sassuolo 2 2.15 11. 2018-11-04
Scotland ScottishPL Kilmarnock Aberdeen X 3.29 11. 2018-11-04
Netherlands Eredivisie Utrecht Den Haag X 4.30 11. 2018-11-04
Netherlands Eredivisie For Sittard Zwolle X 3.69 11. 2018-11-04

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

After the last negative week the Wager goes down to 11, to preserve our bankroll. We always bet 2.5% of the bankroll and the total wager should never go above half of the total bankroll.

Let's start from Eredivisie.
Great odds for Excelsior win vs Groeningen. Excelsior definitely deserve their table spot. A decent side that is performing as expected. They can get a home win and the odds are tasty.

In Serie A the most interesting match is Sampdoria-Torino. Torino is a good side, Sampdoria is slightly over performing. Main reason I think is their keeper is the best second in the league. Torino has better offensive numbers overall and the teams are very close for defensive stats. Great odds for a draw.

Scottish Premier League now. We bet on a draw in Kilmarnock-Aberdeen. The home team is performing better than their numbers would suggest. Above average shooting accuracy and great keeper it seems. Thei two teams offensive and defensive numbers are basically the same. With the odds so high a draw seems to offer the best value.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.



Slip Result 26-27 October 2018


Our slip results for the weekend 26-27 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Win
Spain Liga Valladolid Espanol 2 2.4 14. -14.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Guimaraes Sp Braga 2 2.16 14. -14.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Nacional Portimonense 2 2.64 14. 22.96
Netherlands Eredivisie FC Emmen VVV Venlo X 3.46 14. 34.44
France Ligue1 Nimes St Etienne X 3.44 14. 34.16
Spain Liga Girona Vallecano 2 4.55 14. -14.0
Spain Liga Celta Eibar 1 2.26 14. 17.64
Spain Liga Ath Madrid Sociedad X 4.07 14. -14.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Rio Ave Chaves X 3.69 14. -14.0
Germany Bundesliga Fortuna Dusseldorf Wolfsburg X 3.36 14. -14.0
Netherlands Eredivisie Graafschap Excelsior 2 2.61 14. -14.0
Italy SerieA Torino Fiorentina 2 3.06 14. -14.0
France Ligue1 Toulouse Montpellier 2 2.78 14. 24.92
France Ligue1 Guingamp Strasbourg 2 3.36 14. -14.0
England PremierLeague Brighton Wolves 2 2.49 14. -14.0
Spain Liga Alaves Villarreal 2 2.43 14. -14.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Sp Lisbon Boavista X 2.57 14. -14.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Moreirense Maritimo X 3.32 14. -14.0
Germany Bundesliga Nurnberg Ein Frankfurt 2 2.24 14. -14.0
Germany Bundesliga Werder Bremen Leverkusen 1 2.29 14. -14.0
France Ligue1 Bordeaux Nice 1 2.37 14. -14.0
England PremierLeague Man United Everton X 3.87 14. -14.0
Total Stake 308
Total Wins -103.88
ROI -33.73%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip 26-27 October 2018


Our slip for the weekend 26-27 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Date
Netherlands Eredivisie FC Emmen VVV Venlo X 3.46 14. 2018-10-26
Netherlands Eredivisie Graafschap Excelsior 2 2.61 14. 2018-10-27
Italy SerieA Torino Fiorentina 2 3.06 14. 2018-10-27

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

Two matches in Eredivisie this weekend. Many points difference between Venlo and Emmen. The two side look very very similar. Exact same number of shots taken so far, with Emmen a slightly better defence. Less than 1 expected point between them suggest a draw is the most probable result.
The other match in Eredivisie sees Graafschap hosting Excelsior. Away win has great value. The 2 teams have very similar numbers but the model favours Excelsior with 10.8 expected points vs 5.3 for Graafschap.

In Serie A Fiorentina is a very strong offensive side. They match Torino for defensive stats and outscore them for shots, shots on targets and corners. Fiorentina is is also second in the league for shots on target against. Finally Fiorentina has more than 19 expected points (vs Torino 12.3). An away win at those odds offers great value.



Full Slip Result 19-20-21-22 October 2018


Our full slip results for the weekend 19-20-21-22 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Win
Germany Bundesliga Ein Frankfurt Fortuna Dusseldorf 2 4.36 9. -9.0
Spain Liga Villarreal Ath Madrid X 3.22 9. 19.98
Spain Liga Real Madrid Levante X 8.62 9. -9.0
Scotland ScottishPL Hearts Aberdeen 1 2.38 9. 12.42
Scotland ScottishPL Motherwell St Johnstone 1 2.28 9. -9.0
Germany Bundesliga Wolfsburg Bayern Munich X 5.08 9. -9.0
Germany Bundesliga Augsburg RB Leipzig X 2.44 9. 12.96
Germany Bundesliga Schalke 04 Werder Bremen 2 3.77 9. 24.93
England PremierLeague Bournemouth Southampton X 3.51 9. 22.59
England PremierLeague Wolves Watford X 3.67 9. -9.0
Netherlands Eredivisie Utrecht AZ Alkmaar 2 2.75 9. -9.0
France Ligue1 Reims Angers 2 3.93 9. -9.0
France Ligue1 Dijon Lille 2 2.23 9. 11.07
France Ligue1 Caen Guingamp X 3.4 9. 21.6
Spain Liga Vallecano Getafe 2 3.38 9. 21.42
Spain Liga Eibar Ath Bilbao 2 2.86 9. -9.0
Spain Liga Huesca Espanol 2 2.18 9. 10.62
Italy SerieA Bologna Torino 2 2.32 9. -9.0
Germany Bundesliga Hertha Freiburg X 3.49 9. 22.41
Germany Bundesliga M'gladbach Mainz X 4.35 9. -9.0
France Ligue1 Nice Marseille 2 2.2 9. 10.8
France Ligue1 St Etienne Rennes X 3.46 9. 22.14
England PremierLeague Arsenal Leicester X 4.61 9. -9.0
Total Stake 207
Total Wins +113.94
ROI 52.75%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip 20-21 October 2018


Our slip for the weeekend 20-21 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Win
Scotland ScottishPL Hearts Aberdeen 1 2.38 10. 2018-10-20
Scotland ScottishPL Motherwell St Johnstone 1 2.28 10. 2018-10-20
Netherlands Eredivisie Utrecht AZ Alkmaar 2 2.75 10. 2018-10-20
Italy SerieA Bologna Torino 2 2.32 10. 2018-10-21

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

Two matches in Scottish Premier. Motherwell home win vs St Johnstone offers great value. The home team is a very good defensive side, has conceded half of the shot St Johnstone conceded so far. Their attaccking returns are similar and Motherwell is at almost 10 expected points vs 5.3 for St Johnstone.

In Serie A Torino can get an away win vs Bologna. The home team looks very poor and their stats show it. They are bottom of the league for corners and they are the worst team in terms of shot accuracy.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our free picks as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and free picks.



Slip Result 5-6-7 October 2018


Our slip results for the weeekend 5-6-7 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Win
Spain Liga Ath Bilbao Sociedad 2 3.79 8. 22.32
England PremierLeague Brighton West Ham X 3.3 8. -8.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Santa Clara Chaves 1 2.3 8. 10.4
Germany Bundesliga Werder Bremen Wolfsburg X 3.63 8. -8.0
Spain Liga Getafe Levante X 3.82 8. -8.0
Spain Liga Girona Eibar 1 2.14 8. -8.0
Netherlands Eredivisie Den Haag Groningen 1 2.15 8. 9.2
Netherlands Eredivisie Graafschap Heerenveen X 3.66 8. -8.0
England PremierLeague Leicester Everton X 3.52 8. -8.0
England PremierLeague Burnley Huddersfield X 3.04 8. 16.32
Italy SerieA Cagliari Bologna 1 2.14 8. 9.12
France Ligue1 Guingamp Montpellier 2 2.92 8. -8.0
France Ligue1 Angers Strasbourg X 3.31 8. 18.48
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Maritimo Guimaraes 1 2.42 8. -8.0
Scotland ScottishPL Motherwell Livingston X 3.34 8. 18.72
Germany Bundesliga Fortuna Dusseldorf Schalke 04 1 3.61 8. -8.0
Germany Bundesliga Mainz Hertha X 3.37 8. 18.96
Spain Liga Sevilla Celta X 4.55 8. -8.0
Spain Liga Ath Madrid Betis X 4.02 8. -8.0
Netherlands Eredivisie FC Emmen For Sittard X 3.45 8. 19.6
England PremierLeague Liverpool Man City 2 2.86 8. -8.0
Italy SerieA Lazio Fiorentina 2 4.4 8. -8.0
France Ligue1 Bordeaux Nantes 1 2.35 8. 10.8
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Portimonense Sp Lisbon X 2.41 8. -8.0
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Benfica Porto X 3.34 8. -8.0
Scotland ScottishPL Rangers Hearts X 4.29 8. -8.0
Germany Bundesliga Freiburg Leverkusen 1 3.4 8. -8.0
Total Stake 216
Total Wins +17.92
ROI 8.29%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip Result 5-6-7 October 2018


Our slip results for the weeekend 5-6-7 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Result
Spain Liga Ath Bilbao Sociedad 2 3.79 8. +22.32
England PremierLeague Brighton West Ham X 3.3 8. -8
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Santa Clara Chaves 1 2.3 8. +10.4
Germany Bundesliga Werder Bremen Wolfsburg X 3.63 8. -8
Spain Liga Getafe Levante X 3.82 8. -8
Spain Liga Girona Eibar 1 2.14 8. -8
Netherlands Eredivisie Den Haag Groningen 1 2.15 8. +9.2
Netherlands Eredivisie Graafschap Heerenveen X 3.66 8. -8
England PremierLeague Leicester Everton X 3.52 8. -8
England PremierLeague Burnley Huddersfield X 3.04 8. +16.32
Italy SerieA Cagliari Bologna 1 2.14 8. +9.12
France Ligue1 Guingamp Montpellier 2 2.92 8. -8
France Ligue1 Angers Strasbourg X 3.31 8. +18.48
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Maritimo Guimaraes 1 2.42 8. -8
Scotland ScottishPL Motherwell Livingston X 3.34 8. +18.72
Germany Bundesliga Fortuna Dusseldorf Schalke 04 1 3.61 8. -8
Germany Bundesliga Mainz Hertha X 3.37 8. +18.96
Total Stake 136
Total Wins +51.52
ROI 37.88%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip 5-6-7 October 2018


Our slip for the weeekend 5-6-7 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Result
Netherlands Eredivisie Den Haag Groningen 1 2.15 8. 2018-10-06
Netherlands Eredivisie Graafschap Heerenveen X 3.66 8. 2018-10-06
Italy SerieA Cagliari Bologna 1 2.14 8. 2018-10-06
Scotland ScottishPL Motherwell Livingston X 3.34 8. 2018-10-06
Netherlands Eredivisie FC Emmen For Sittard X 3.45 8. 2018-10-07
Italy SerieA Lazio Fiorentina 2 4.4 8. 2018-10-07
Scotland ScottishPL Rangers Hearts X 4.29 8. 2018-10-07

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


We are launching Premium today so the blog will only be updated with free bets from Serie A, Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League. To access all bets for the weekend subscribe to AlfaData Premium.

Eredivisie offers some great value. Graafschap and Heerenveen are both at 7 points, pretty much in line with their expected points. Similar defensive and offensive performances. Graafschap has a better attack but concedes more. A draw offer ery good odds.

Serie A with a great fixture at great odds. Away win for Fiorentina vs Lazio. Fiorentina is such a good side. They are in top 4 teams in the league for shooting accuracy and shots conceded. Lazio numbers instead look not so great. They are 13 for shooting accuracy and their expected points is only 9.4. Great odds for an away win.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.



Slip Result 28 September-1 October 2018


Our slip results for the weeekend 28 September-1 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Result
France Ligue1 St Etienne Monaco 1 2.04 8 8.32
Spain Liga Vallecano Espanol 2 2.7 8 -8
France Ligue1 Caen Amiens X 3.26 8 -8
France Ligue1 Angers Guingamp 1 2.12 8 -8
Italy SerieA Roma Lazio 1 2.35 7 9.45
Spain Liga Eibar Sevilla 2 2.27 8 10.16
Scotland ScottishPL Kilmarnock Motherwell X 3.42 8 -8
England PremierLeague Everton Fulham X 4.15 8 -8
England PremierLeague Arsenal Watford X 4.71 8 -8
England PremierLeague Chelsea Liverpool X 3.59 8 20.72
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Werder Bremen 2 2.72 8 -8
Germany Bundesliga Hoffenheim RB Leipzig X 4.02 8 -8
Germany Bundesliga Nurnberg Fortuna Dusseldorf 2 3.7 8 -8
Germany Bundesliga Leverkusen Dortmund 2 2.51 8 12.08
Germany Bundesliga Wolfsburg M'gladbach X 3.49 8 19.92
Italy SerieA Bologna Udinese 2 3.04 8 -8
Italy SerieA Chievo Torino 2 2.09 8 8.72
Italy SerieA Frosinone Genoa 2 2.36 8 10.88
Spain Liga Huesca Girona X 3.34 8 18.72
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Guimaraes Setubal 2 4.79 7.5 -8
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Nacional Santa Clara 2 3.65 8 21.20
Netherlands Eredivisie Feyenoord Vitesse 1 2.06 8 8.48
Netherlands Eredivisie Groningen Utrecht 2 2.51 8 -8
Netherlands Eredivisie Graafschap Willem II 2 2.24 8 -8
England PremierLeague Cardiff Burnley X 3.12 8 -8
Germany Bundesliga Ein Frankfurt Hannover 2 3.96 8 -8
Germany Bundesliga Augsburg Freiburg X 3.47 8 -8
Spain Liga Celta Getafe 1 2.02 8 -8
England PremierLeague Bournemouth Crystal Palace X 3.49 8 -8
Total Stake 231
Total Wins +4.65
ROI 2.01%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip 28 September-1 October 2018


Our slip for the weeekend 28 September-1 October 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Result
France Ligue1 St Etienne Monaco 1 2.04 7.5 2018-09-28
Spain Liga Vallecano Espanol 2 2.7 7.5 2018-09-28
France Ligue1 Caen Amiens X 3.26 7.5 2018-09-29
France Ligue1 Angers Guingamp 1 2.12 7.5 2018-09-29
Italy SerieA Roma Lazio 1 2.35 7.5 2018-09-29
Spain Liga Eibar Sevilla 2 2.27 7.5 2018-09-29
Scotland ScottishPL Kilmarnock Motherwell X 3.42 7.5 2018-09-29
England PremierLeague Everton Fulham X 4.15 7.5 2018-09-29
England PremierLeague Arsenal Watford X 4.71 7.5 2018-09-29
England PremierLeague Chelsea Liverpool X 3.59 7.5 2018-09-29
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Werder Bremen 2 2.72 7.5 2018-09-29
Germany Bundesliga Hoffenheim RB Leipzig X 4.02 7.5 2018-09-29
Germany Bundesliga Nurnberg Fortuna Dusseldorf 2 3.7 7.5 2018-09-29
Germany Bundesliga Leverkusen Dortmund 2 2.51 7.5 2018-09-29
Germany Bundesliga Wolfsburg M'gladbach X 3.49 7.5 2018-09-29
Italy SerieA Bologna Udinese 2 3.04 7.5 2018-09-30
Italy SerieA Chievo Torino 2 2.09 7.5 2018-09-30
Italy SerieA Frosinone Genoa 2 2.36 7.5 2018-09-30
Spain Liga Huesca Girona X 3.34 7.5 2018-09-30
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Guimaraes Setubal 2 4.79 7.5 2018-09-30
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Nacional Santa Clara 2 3.65 7.5 2018-09-30
Netherlands Eredivisie Feyenoord Vitesse 1 2.06 7.5 2018-09-30
Netherlands Eredivisie Groningen Utrecht 2 2.51 7.5 2018-09-30
Netherlands Eredivisie Graafschap Willem II 2 2.24 7.5 2018-09-30
England PremierLeague Cardiff Burnley X 3.12 7.5 2018-09-30
Germany Bundesliga Ein Frankfurt Hannover 2 3.96 7.5 2018-09-30
Germany Bundesliga Augsburg Freiburg X 3.47 7.5 2018-09-30
Spain Liga Celta Getafe 1 2.02 7.5 2018-10-01
England PremierLeague Bournemouth Crystal Palace X 3.49 7.5 2018-10-01

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Many bets and appealing odds today for all 8 Leagues we track. This is the last week we are offering all 8 Leagues for free. From next week we will launch AlfaData Premium. With Premium you will be able to access all the model predictions and tips. If you do not subscribe to Premium you will only be able to access data on 3 Leagues.

We are reducing the amount we wage on each bet because of portfolio management considerations. We do not want our potential negative outcome to hit more than half of our bankroll. This means that even if we lose all of this weekend bets we will still have half of our current bankroll intact. Let's now look at some of these bets and why they offer value.

Espanol away win vs Rayo looks very appealing. Espanol runs at over 14 expected points, Vallecano less than 4. Espanol have better offensive stats and are number 2 in Liga for shots on target. Odd at 2.7 is definitely a good value.

Arsenal does not look solid enough to get more than a draw vs Watford. With only 8.4 expected poitns they have had quite a bit of luck in the past matches. Watford has better stats defensively but very similar attaccking numbers. They have been overperforming too but still have one of the best shooting accuracy of Premier League. Odds at almost 5 make it a very appealing bet.

Another high odd prediction for Setubal victory against Guimaraes. Primeira Liga is a very interesting one. Setubal is low in the table but performing decently. Guimaraes definitely overperforming, they get a lot of shots against and have less than 3 expected points. Here odds are very high too.

Hannover away win vs Eintracht is priced at almost 4. They are both at the bottom of Bundesliga but their numbers tell different stories. Hannover is actually performing decetly in terms of offensive and defensive stats. They could be middle of the table soon. Eintracht has troubles in shooting, last team in the league for shots. They also suffer many shots on target against. An away win looks very possible.

All our odds are fetched from Pinnacle, just before we publish our weekly blog post. To get our predictions as soon as we publish them just register and you will receive our newsletter, have access to all statistics and predictions.



Slip Result 21-22 September 2018


Results 21-22 September 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Result
Netherlands Eredivisie Heracles Graafschap 1 2.12 10. +11.20
Netherlands Eredivisie For Sittard Willem II X 3.5 10. +25.00
France Ligue1 Lille Nantes 1 2.61 10. +16.10
Germany Bundesliga Nurnberg Hannover X 3.37 10. -10.00
Germany Bundesliga Hoffenheim Dortmund X 3.73 10. +27.30
Germany Bundesliga Hertha M'gladbach X 3.39 10. -10.00
Spain Liga Eibar Leganes X 3.31 10. -10.00
Spain Liga Celta Valladolid X 3.65 10. + 26.50
Spain Liga Getafe Ath Madrid X 3.35 10. -10.00
Spain Liga Real Madrid Espanol 2 17.57 10. -10.00
Spain Liga Huesca Sociedad X 3.5 10. -10.00
Italy SerieA Parma Cagliari X 3.29 10. -10.00
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Maritimo Belenenses X 3.33 10. +23.30
Total Stake 130
Total Wins +59.40
ROI 45.69%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


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Slip 21-22 September 2018


My slip below for for 21-22 September 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Odds Wager Date
Netherlands Eredivisie Heracles Graafschap 1 2.12 10. 2018-09-21
Netherlands Eredivisie For Sittard Willem II X 3.5 10. 2018-09-22
France Ligue1 Lille Nantes 1 2.61 10. 2018-09-22
Germany Bundesliga Nurnberg Hannover X 3.37 10. 2018-09-22
Germany Bundesliga Hoffenheim Dortmund X 3.73 10. 2018-09-22
Germany Bundesliga Hertha M'gladbach X 3.39 10. 2018-09-22
Spain Liga Eibar Leganes X 3.31 10. 2018-09-22
Spain Liga Celta Valladolid X 3.65 10. 2018-09-22
Spain Liga Getafe Ath Madrid X 3.35 10. 2018-09-22
Spain Liga Real Madrid Espanol 2 17.57 10. 2018-09-22
Spain Liga Huesca Sociedad X 3.5 10. 2018-09-21
Italy SerieA Parma Cagliari X 3.29 10. 2018-09-22
Portugal PrimeiraLiga Maritimo Belenenses X 3.33 10. 2018-09-22

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


We are starting the new season with more Leagues, more bets and an updated model, which will hopefully inrease our wins.
The model has selected a total of 13 matches across 6 leagues. Let's got through the best ones in detail.

In Eredivisie, Heracles are a little bit overperforming but their numbers are solid. More shots than Graafschap, fourth place in the League for shots on target. An home win at good odds.

In Bundesliga, Hoffenheim has 0.2 expected points more than Dortmund. The two sides have very similar stats, with Hoffenheim better offensively but also less strong defensively. It should be a tight match. Very good odds for a draw.

La Liga offers very interesting matches, with a lot of value in draws. The model has selected a potential for a big shocking win of Espanol vs Real Madrid. It is a risky bet, but it's backed by a very good season so far by Espanol. They have more expected points than Real Madrid, more shots and more corners. Defensively a bit worse thatn Real but these odds offer amazing value.

Primeira Liga is another new entry. Belenenses has great chances to draw against Maritimo. They have not performed as they could so far but the two teams have very similar stats. Belenenses in particular has a great shooting accuracy and keeper score (third in the league). High odds for a draw.

This is just a preview of what the new season of Alfa Data will offer. From next week you will have the chance to follow all stats and bets for 3 major European leagues for free.
We will also launch a Premium offer with access to stats and bets for 8 big European leagues and more.

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A look at a full season of value betting - Part 2


In this second part I will analyse the results of 9 months of betting form the League point of view. I will analyse the profitability of each league, try to find out if there was a league more profitable than others and draw conclusions from this.

First, let's have a look at the number of bets placed per League.

Bundesliga is the league where I placed most of the bets, 45. This may seem quite strange as Bundesliga is the league with the least number of matches among the 5 we focused on. As I repeatedly suggested during the season, Bundesliga however has had the most value bets for a long period of time. Many teams were under performing (Hamburg and Mainz above all) and this definitely contributed to the large number of bets placed in this league. EPL and Liga are the second most popular leagues with 39 bets placed. Ligue 1 and Serie A are probably the leagues with the less variability. This explains why only 33 bets were placed on each of these leagues last season.

Now, let's focus on the total stake and the profits league by league.

The total amount bet reflects closely the number of bets made per league. On top is Bundesliga with 343 £, followed by EPL, Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A. Serie A total stake is only 243 £. If one looks at the profits brought league by league instead things look quite different. The most profitable league is Serie A, with a bit more than 82 £ won. EPL follows closely with 80 £ won. Bundesliga and Liga brought profits too. Surprisingly Ligue 1 turned out to be not a profitable league, I lost more than 30 £ betting on Ligue 1 last season.

A look at the ROI helps understanding the difference between profitability between leagues.

The best performing leagues turn out to be Serie A and EPL. Serie A returned an impressive 33% ROI, EPL very close with 27%. La Liga and Bundesliga have a similar return around 10% (more or less as expected from backtesting the model) while Ligue 1 is the only league with a negative ROI of -12%.

The analysis of betting results league by league has shown some interesting results

  • 4 leagues out of 5 turned out to be profitable last season.
  • Bundesliga has attracted the most bets last season.
  • EPL and Serie A are the most profitable leagues with ROI around 30% or more.
  • Ligue 1 is the only league with negative ROI. The losses on this league are limited to 12% negative ROI.
  • There is a high variability in the leagues ROI. It ranges from 12% to 33% ROI.
Taking into account these results it is probably a good idea for next season to adjust the stake put on single bets. By taking into account the leagues profitability stakes can be for example increased for matches in EPL and Serie A (the two most profitable leagues according to the analysis).

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A look at a full season of value betting


In this article I will look back at the first season spent on value betting on matches from the top 5 European Leagues. I will show the results and some numbers around them. I will show which were the most profitable bets and try to understand the factors behind the bets I won.

Let's look at the amount of money bet first. My initial bankroll was 200£ and I set the initial amount on each bet at 5£. This is 2.5% of the bankroll and I tried to keep this rato stable over the season.
I placed a total of 190 bets over these 9 months. 85 of these were placed on a Draw and 105 on a home or away win. Notice that 45% of the bets were placed on a Draw.

The total amount won placing these bets is 194.38 £. I won 64.02 £ betting on draws and 130.36 £ on an home/away win. It looks like bets on away/home wins were more profitable in the end.

Over these 9 months the total amount stacked on bets amounts to 1443 £. The total ROI calculated as the ratio between total amount won and amount stacked is around 13%. This is a very good ROI and it allowed me to almost double my initial bankroll. Bets on draws gave an ROI just below 10% while bets on wins gave and ROI above 16%. A big difference that confirms bets on wins to be more profitable overall.

Out of the 190 bets placed the most profitable (as amount won) was the bet on Leipzig-Hamburg, at 4.54 odds. This ended in a draw and gave me a profit of 31.86 £.

Of course not all the months were profitable, below I show the performance of this strategy over the month of October 2017 to May 2018.

Month Number of Bets Total Stake Won ROI
October 26 130 32.70 25%
November 26 182 -11.69 -6.4%
December 12 81 81.09 100%
January 32 267 76.32 28%
February 12 108 -59.76 -55%
March 4 32 -0.32 -1%
April 49 394 42.60 10%
May 26 234 5.94 2%
- - - - -
Total 187 1428 166.88 11.7%
Monthly Average 23.3 178 20.8 32.5%


Over the course of 8 months I had a few negative ones. In February I lost more than 55 £, for a record negative ROI of -55%. Months with negative ROI were only 2 over these 8 months. I had 5 profitable months and one month (March) with very small loss.

The average ROI has been 32% with a maximum value of 100% in December. There is a high variance in the ROI but the model definitively has some predictive power and it yields profits over a long enough betting period.

Bankroll management and being able to identify bets with value are very important factors when designing a betting strategy. The more time passes the more I see betting as an investment opportunity. It's risky but not more than investing in stocks. It's important to be persistent and not give up when things are going bad. But it's important to be active and adjust the betting strategy to your bankroll.

I have taken a break this Summer but I will start again once the big leagues are back. In 2017/2018 season the model focused exclusivey on the top 5 leagues in Europe. For the next season I plan to apply the model on more leagues, which will increase the number of bets per month at least a factor 2. If I can manage to keep the same ROI while at the same time increase the bet volume of a factor 2 this will double bet earnings.

According to my research done on past performance there should be a some minimal difference between profitability between the leagues. This can reflect in bets on some leagues bringing more profits than others. Also, the difference may have the effect on changing the error associated to the model predictions. Results on some of these bets will then be more reliable and in principle it could be better to focus most bets on these reliable/high profitability leagues. For all these reason, in the second part of this blog post I plan to present an analysis on the model performance league by league. Stay tuned.

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Slip 19-20 May 2018


My slip below for for 19-20 May 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
Italy Serie A Cagliari Atalanta 2 9 2.250
Italy Serie A Genoa Torino 2 9 2.660
Spain La Liga Athletic Bilbao Espanyol 1 9 2.070
France Ligue 1 Rennes Montpellier X 9 3.550
France Ligue 1 Dijon Angers X 9 3.740
Total 45
ROI

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Not many matches this week as Premier and Bundesliga have already ended. Serie A still very interesting but also risky. We selected two matches with value. Atalanta runs 10 points behind the expected and their numbers are much better than Cagliari. Could be risky as Cagliari will play not to relegate. Good value anyway.
Genoa is 7 points above expected and we don't see it winning against Torino. Torino numbers are much better, with a keeper in the best 5 in serie A. Great value for an away win.

In La Liga, good value for the home win of Athletic Bilbao. They are behind Espanol in the table but their numbers are better everywhere. The odds for an home win are really good.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Montpellier can get a draw against Rennes. They have 5 expected points more than the rival and good underlying numbers. Awesome defense, they are second in the league for shots on target against.
Another draw for Dijon vs Angers. Angers is a better team, with a great defense. Dijon is a good attacking side and has hoem advantage. The draw offers amazing value.

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Slip 12-13 May 2018


My slip below for for 12-13 May 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
Italy Serie A Torino SPAL 1 9 2.300
Italy Serie A Benevento Genoa 1 9 2.680
Spain La Liga Real Betis Sevilla 2 9 2.610
Spain La Liga Girona Valencia 2 9 2.620
England Premier League West Ham Everton X 9 3.500
England Premier League Burnley Bournemouth X 9 3.590
Germany Bundesliga Mainz Werder Bremen 1 9 2.300
Germany Bundesliga Hoffenheim Borussia Dortmund 1 9 2.320
France Ligue 1 Amiens Metz 2 9 4.020
France Ligue 1 Angers Nantes X 9 3.410
Total 90
ROI

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Serie A with two matches this week. SPAL has 9 points more than expected and is running more or less in line with expectations. Torino has much better numbers overall and they should get an home win.
Benevento are already relegated and it may be risky to bet on them. But their offensive numbers are much better than Genoa, they should be battling for relegation according to expected points. Genoa has instead overperformed (their keeper is the 2nd in Serie A). Good odds for an home win.

In La Liga, you need to bet against Betis, huge overperformers this season. They are hosting Sevilla, they outperforms them in almost all stats. Away win very likely.
The other match sees Valencia going to Girona, their away win is very likely. They have much better numbers and also running a bit behind their expected points.

Another two Premier League matches this week. West Ham and Everton have incredibly similar numbers. They have 10 points difference but only 2 expected points difference. A draw offers very good value.
Bet also on a draw between Burnley and Bournemouth. The model says Bournemouth is a better side and there are 9 expected points differnece between the two teams. Burnely has the second best keeper in the league this season. An away win is also likely but the best odds are for a draw.

In Bundesliga now, where we selected two matches. Mainz, still underperforming, hosts Werder. They have similar numbers but Mainz has much better shooting accuracy. Also they have 13 points less than expected while Werder is more or less performing as expected. Home win offers the best value.
Hoffenheim plays Borussia Dortmund and the numbers say the two sides are very close. Dortmund is a bit better defensively. Hoffenheim has more expected points (due to better shot precision) and this is why we bet on them to win.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Metz is bottom of the table, but their numbers are not so bad. They are almost 20 points behind the expected and all their stats look better than Amiens (best keeper in the league). An away win offers very good odds here.
Angers is running 6 points behind expected. They have slightly worse offensive numbers than Nantes but much better defensive ones (number 4 in the league for shots against). Good odds for a draw here.

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Slip 5-6 May 2018


My slip below for for 5-6 May 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
Italy Serie A Genoa Fiorentina 2 9 2.030
Italy Serie A Lazio Atalanta X 9 3.560
Spain La Liga Athletic Bilbao Real Betis X 9 3.450
England Premier League Everton Southampton 2 9 2.570
England Premier League Bournemouth Swansea 1 9 2.130
England Premier League Stoke Crystal Palace 2 9 2.810
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Hoffenheim 2 9 2.070
Germany Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund Mainz X 9 5.840
Germany Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt Hamburg X 9 3.980
France Ligue 1 Toulouse Lille 1 9 2.240
France Ligue 1 St Etienne Bordeaux X 9 3.480
Total 99
ROI

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Serie A with a couple of very interesting match this week. Fiorentina is in a great shape and their numbers confirm it. Offensively much much better than Genoa. Great odds for an away win here.
Lazio is there and always overperforming a bit. Atalanta has similar offensive numbers and running behind in terms of expected points. They can get a draw there, very high odds for a more than likely result.

In La Liga, Bilbao is well down the table but their numbers are not very different from Betis. Bilbao have great shooting accuracy, many corners for and a gret keeper score. They have been unlucky so far. A draw offers good value.

Three Premier League matches in the slip. An away win for Southampton vs Everton offers great odds. They have underperformed so far and they are number 10 in the league for shots and number 5 for corners. Better offensive and defensive numbers than Everton.
Bournemouth home win vs Swansea offers great odds. They are underperforming, while Swansea has 10 more points than expected.
Crystal Palace are also underperformers. Great win last week and they can do it again vs Stoke. Better stats everywhere, number 7 in the league for shots.

In Bundesliga there are three matches worth betting on. Hoffenheim away win vs Stuttgart. Stuttgart with 12 points more than expected is definitely not as good as Hoffenheim, that are performing in line with expectations. Stuttgart has the best keeper in the league, may be the reason for the overperformance.
The usual Mainz, they can get a draw with Borussia Dortmund. Extremely risky but high rewards for this.
Hamburg plays vs Eintracht. They have very similar offensive numbers, Eintracht has a better defence but the odds for a draw are very good vaue.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Toulouse is still underperforming and a win with Lille is likely. Very good odds.
St Etienne and Bordeaux are likely to get a draw, mainly because St Etienne has been overperforming so far. Bourdeaux has better numbers and expected points but the home factor suggest a draw as the most likely result.

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Slip 28-29 April 2018


My slip below for for 28-29 April 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
Italy Serie A Torino Lazio X 8 4.160 -8
Spain La Liga Alaves Atletico Madrid X 8 3.200 -8
England Premier League Burnley Brighton X 8 3.210 17.68
England Premier League Huddersfield Everton X 8 3.070 -8
England Premier League Crystal Palace Leicester City 1 8 2.110 8.88
Germany Bundesliga Wolfsburg Hamburg 2 8 3.530 20.24
Germany Bundesliga Mainz Leipzig X 8 3.630 -8
Germany Bundesliga Schalke 04 Borussia Monchengladbach X 8 3.680 21.44
France Ligue 1 Strasbourg Nice 2 8 2.300 -8
France Ligue 1 Rennes Toulouse X 8 3.570 -8
Total 80 20.24
ROI 25.30%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Serie A with an interesting match this week. Lazio is there fighting for a top 4 spot. They have overperformed a bit so far. Can lose points away against Torino.

In La Liga, Atletico is still the biggest overperformer of the league. Alaves is insteasd getting slightly less than deserved. Atletico numbers are better, but the draw offers good value.

Three Premier League matches this weekend. A draw for Brighton vs Burnley offers great value. The 2 sides have incredibly similar offensive numbers. Also, Burnley is still overperforming a lot.
Everton is also overperforming and this is the main reason why we bet against them this week too. Huddersfield can get away with a draw. Great odds.
Crystal Palace are instead underperformers. They have collected less than deserved. Better offensive stats than Leicester, similar defensive stats. It looks like the home win offers great value.

In Bundesliga there are three matches worth betting on. The usual Hamburg, they can get an away win with Wolfsburg. They outperform them in all stats.
Mainz underperforming too. They can turn their luck and get a draw vs Leipzig. The odds are very good value.
Finally Schalke is having a bit of luck up there. Good defense but poor offensive numbers. The model favours a draw vs Gladbach.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Again Nice to get an away win vs Strasbourg. They still have 8 points less than expected, good offensive and defensive numbers, great shot accuracy.
Toulouse is also runnig behind their stats. They may get a draw with Rennes. Good value.

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Results Slip 21-22-23 April 2018


Results for 21-22-23 April 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
England Premier League Stoke City Burnley X 8 3.290 18.32
England Premier League Everton Newcastle 2 8 3.460 -8
England Premier League Watford Crystal Palace 2 8 2.540 -8
Spain La Liga Girona Espanyol 2 8 4.040 24.32
Germany Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen 2 8 3.030 -8
Germany Bundesliga Hamburg Freiburg 1 8 2.050 8.40
Germany Bundesliga Augsburg Mainz 2 8 3.600 -8
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Werder Bremen X 8 3.420 -8
France Ligue 1 Nice Montpellier 1 8 2.070 8.56
France Ligue 1 Amiens Strasbourg X 8 3.250 -8
Total 80 11.60
ROI 14.50%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip 21-22-23 April 2018


My slip below for 21-22-23 April 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
England Premier League Stoke City Burnley X 8 3.290
England Premier League Everton Newcastle 2 8 3.460
England Premier League Watford Crystal Palace 2 8 2.540
Spain La Liga Girona Espanyol 2 8 4.040
Germany Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen 2 8 3.030
Germany Bundesliga Hamburg Freiburg 1 8 2.050
Germany Bundesliga Augsburg Mainz 2 8 3.600
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Werder Bremen X 8 3.420
France Ligue 1 Nice Montpellier 1 8 2.070
France Ligue 1 Amiens Strasbourg X 8 3.250

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Premier League matches this weekend all have a lot of value. A draw for Stoke vs Burnley is likely. The 2 sides have very similar numbers and Burnley is overperforming since the start of the season.
Everton is also overperforming and the chances of Newcastle to get an away win are high. They have better offensive numbers and their performance is in line with their stats.
Crystal Palace have collected less than deserved up to now. They have great offensive stats, not so good defensively. A draw offers slightly more value but I decided to go for an away win.

In La Liga, only one match selected. Girona is a better team than Espanyol but they have collected 15 points more than deserved according to the model. There are great odds for an Espanyol away win.

In Bundesliga there are many matches with value. Leverkusen win vs Borussia Dortmund is likely. The 2 teams have impressively similar stats. Dortmund has however colected more than deserved (given their poor shot accuracy) while Leverksen is in line with what is expected.
Hamburg is again on our slip. Same reason, they have underperformed the whole season and they are bound to overperform now. A win vs Freiburg seems very good value.
Mainz underperfomirng too. We bet on them to have some luck these last few matches. An away win vs Augsburg offers great value, given Mainz has better defensive numbers anyway.
Finally Stuttgart and Werder have very similar defensive numbers. Werder better offensively. Given the home advantage we think a draw is the best bet here.

Last two matches are in Ligue 1. Here we bet on Nice to get a win vs Montpellier. They have 10 points less than expected, good offensive and defensive numbers, great shot accuracy but one of the worst keepers of the league.
Strasbourg has very good numbers, much better than Amiens. Poor shot accuracy and keeper are probably the reason they are neasr the bottom of the table. We bet on a draw, it offers the best value.

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Slip 13-14-15-16 April 2018


My slip below for 13-14-15-16 April 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
Italy Serie A Lazio Roma 2 8 2.560
Italy Serie A Milan Napoli X 8 3.740
England Premier League Newcastle Arsenal 2 8 2.230
Spain La Liga Athletic Bilbao Deportivo La Coruna X 8 3.960
Spain La Liga Eibar Alaves X 8 3.440
Spain La Liga Girona Real Betis 2 8 3.170
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Hannover 2 8 4.190
Germany Bundesliga Mainz Freiburg 1 8 2.340
Germany Bundesliga Hoffenheim Hamburg X 8 4.760
France Ligue 1 Caen Toulouse X 8 3.170

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Some Serie A to start with. Roma is 10 expected poitns clear of Lazio, number 1 in serie A for shots, impressive stats overall. Great value on Roma to win the Derby.
Risky bet on Milan, who is hugely underperforming and should get some points back. Chance to get a draw against Napoli is high.

Premier League offers only one match with value. Arsenal win at Newcastle is both expected and with great odds. Bet on it.

In La Liga, Deportivo La Coruna is one of our favourite teams. They should get at least a draw versus Bilbao, it's a long time Deportivo is underperforming.
Eibar again this week. We bet again against them, Alaves can get a draw, they have a good keeper (number 10 in La Liga) and decent numbers. Good value for a draw.
Betis away win against Girona is more likely than the table shows. Girona is overperforming by 14 points and Betis shooting accuracy will be a factor here.

In Bundesliga there are 3 interesting matches to bet on. Hannover away win offers good value. They have better offensive numbers than Stuttgart.
Mainz is one of the underperfomers of the League. It's time for them to get a win and against Freiburg this seems likely.
Finally we see value in a draw between Hamburg and Hoffenheim. Hamburg has good underlying numbers and have achieved less than expected so far.

One match in Ligue 1. Here we bet on Toulouse to get a draw vs Caen. They have 9 points less than expected and have very nice numbers.

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Slip 6-7-8 April 2018


My slip below for the weekend 6-7-8 April 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
Italy Serie A Crotone Bologna X 9 3.180
Italy Serie A Roma Fiorentina X 9 3.810
Spain La Liga Deportivo La Coruna Malaga 1 9 2.060
Spain La Liga Real Betis Eibar 1 9 2.260
England Premier League Bournemouth Crystal Palace X 9 3.480
England Premier League Leicester Newcastle X 9 3.540
England Premier League Watford Burnley 1 9 2.330
Germany Bundesliga Hamburg Schalke 04 X 9 3.390
Germany Bundesliga Koln Mainz 2 9 3.590
France Ligue 1 Bordeaux Lille X 9 3.700

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


We start with Serie A. Crotone is a good team, better than the points show. They have better offensive stats than Bologna (304 vs 279 shots made) and very similar defensive numbers. A draw is the best bet here.
Fiorentina has very good numbers, impressive for number of shots, 3rd in serie A. They can get a draw against Roma.

In La Liga, Deportivo La Coruna underperforming since a while. It should be time for them to get 3 points, very good corners and shots number for them. Malaga is instead performing more or less as expected, they are bottom of the league in almost all stats.
Eibar is still overperforming and Betis too. Betis has however better underlying stats, especially shot accuracy, one of the best in the league. Nice odds for an home win.

3 matches in Premier League where there is value. A draw between Bournemouth and Palace is very likely. Palace has very good numbers, slightly better than Bournemouth. Given the home advantage the model predicts a draw.
A draw between Leicester and Newcastle is also good value. Leicester is overperforming and Newcastle could do better given their shot volume and defensive stats.
A Watford win over Burnley is predicted by the model. The expected ponts of the two teams are very similar but Burnley is overperforming a lot and should start to lose points now.

In Bundesliga there are 2 interesting matches to bet on. A draw between Hamburg and Schalke is likely. Hamburg underlying numbers are not worth of the bottom of the league and they should get some points. On the other hand Schalke is overperforming and they should lose points.
Mainz win against Koln seems to have some value. Koln is a team that concedes a lot (439 shots against, worst in Bundes) and Mainz has pretty good offensive stats.

Last match in Ligue 1. A draw between Bordeaux and Lille is the only result with some value in this fixture. Very similar offensive numbers, even if Bordeaux is a better defensive team.

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Slip 31 March-1 April 2018


My slip below for the weekend 31 March-1 April 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
Spain La Liga Girona Levante X 8 3.960
Spain La Liga Eibar Real Sociedad 2 8 3.160
Spain La Liga Espanyol Alaves X 8 3.250
England Premier League Chelsea Tottenham X 8 3.470
England Premier League West Brom Burnley X 8 3.120
England Premier League West Ham Southampton 2 8 2.730
Germany Bundesliga Mainz Borussia Monchengladbach X 8 3.390
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Hamburg 2 8 5.300
France Ligue 1 Troyes Nice 2 8 2.390

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


We start with La Liga. Girona is a slightly better team than Levante bnu the model sees them as overperformers. While Levante is a bit underperforming. Good odds for a draw.
Eibar is another overperformer and Sociedad has much better offensive numbers. The model predicts an away win.
Finally a draw between Espanyol and Alaves offers very good odds. Again betting on Espanyol regressing to their expected points.

3 matches in Premier League where there is value. A draw between Chelsea and Tottenham offers very good odds. Their expected points are very similar, Chelsea should have a bit more.
Another good value results is the draw between West Brom and Burnley. Burnley is a better team but should lose some points given their numbers.
At last, Southampton away win offers good value too. The team is underperforming and have better numbers than West Ham pretty much everywhere.

In Bundesliga another 3 interesting matches. A draw between Mainz and Borussia seems likely. The teams have similar expected points and Mainz is heavily underperforming.
Hamburg away win is a very risky match to bet on. The model has always favoured Hamburg this season but they repaid very rarely.

Last match in Ligue 1. Nice should not have problems getting an away win with Troyes. Better offensive and defensive numbers, even if they have one of the poorest goalkeeper of the league.



Slip 3-4 February 2018


My slip below for the weekend 3-4 February 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Results
Italy Serie A Bologna Fiorentina 2 9 2.330 11.97
Spain La Liga Eibar Sevilla 2 9 2.790 -9
Spain La Liga Girona Athletic Bilbao X 9 3.260 -9
Spain La Liga Atletico Madrid Valencia X 9 4.460 -9
England Premier League West Bromwich Southampton 2 9 3.030 18.27
Germany Bundesliga Hamburg Hannover 1 9 2.360 -9
Germany Bundesliga Augsburg Eintracht Frankfurt 2 9 3.270 -9
France Ligue 1 Montpellier Angers X 9 3.260 -9
France Ligue 1 Caen Nantes 2 9 2.840 -9
Total 81 -32.76
ROI -40%

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team




Slip 3-4 February 2018


My slip below for the weekend 3-4 February 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds
Italy Serie A Bologna Fiorentina 2 9 2.330
Spain La Liga Eibar Sevilla 2 9 2.790
Spain La Liga Girona Athletic Bilbao X 9 3.260
Spain La Liga Atletico Madrid Valencia X 9 4.460
England Premier League West Bromwich Southampton 2 9 3.030
Germany Bundesliga Hamburg Hannover 1 9 2.360
Germany Bundesliga Augsburg Eintracht Frankfurt 2 9 3.270
France Ligue 1 Montpellier Angers X 9 3.260
France Ligue 1 Caen Nantes 2 9 2.840

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


We start with Serie A where Fiorentina is not performing as expected. Their main problem is the shooting accuracy (17 in serie A) but they shoot a lot and concede very few chances. Both offensive and defensive numbers are bettere than Bologna. Good value for an away win.

Let's look at La Liga. Sevilla away win vs Eibar offers good odds for the model. The two teams have very similar offensive numbers and Eibar is better defensively. Eibar however seems to be overperforming and they have poor shooting accuracy.
Girona and Bilbao have similar offensive numbers. The away team is performing as expected while the home team seems to have more poins than expected. A draw offer the best value here.
At last, Atletico Madrid is hosting Valencia. Valencia seems overall a better team, even if they concede a lot. The home factor favours Atletico so the best value is for a draw here.

In Premier League now where there is a clash at the bottom of the table. Southampton should be able to win against West Brom. Their offensive numbers are better and defensively they are more or less at the same level. Small expected points difference but very good value at these odds.

There are 2 matches with value in Bundesliga. The usual Hamburg side that has good odds to win vs Hannover. Hamburg is the most underperforming team of the league, according to their stats.
The other match with value is Eintracht (slightly underperforming) to win away against Augsburg (slightly overperforming). Looking at their numbers they are pretty similar, an away win offers the best value but also a draw is quite likely.

In Ligue 1 there is some value in two matches. Montpellier and Angers have only 0.7 expected points difference. The model sees a great value for a draw here.
Nantes and Caen are both overperforming. Nantes has the home advantage and also one of the best keepers of the league. Caen is a solid team but they almost never shot on target (only 70 so far). The best value here is for an away win.

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Slip 26-27-28 January 2018


My slip below for the weekend 26-27-28 January 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds
Italy Serie A Torino Benevento X 9 4.800
Italy Serie A AC Milan Lazio 1 9 2.480
Spain La Liga Deportivo La Coruna Levante 1 9 2.000
Spain La Liga Leganes Espanyol 1 9 2.460
Germany Bundesliga Leipzig Hamburg X 9 4.540
Germany Bundesliga Leverkusen Mainz X 9 5.180
France Ligue 1 Toulouse Troyes X 9 3.360
France Ligue 1 Dijon Rennes X 9 3.370
France Ligue 1 St Etienne Caen 1 9 2.090
France Ligue 1 Metz Nice 2 9 2.290

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


We start with Serie A where Benevento is at the bottom of the table. They are not a bad team, shot volume is similar to Torino and they concede slightly more than them. In short Benevento is massively underperforming and their chances to draw in Torino are pretty high.
AC Milan has better numbers than Lazio, shots, corners, shots conceded. Lazio has a great shooting accuracy, number 1 in Serie A and this is the main reason why they are so high in the table. AC Milan is a big favorite here.

Let's look at La Liga. La Coruna and Levante have similar points but La Coruna has almost 4 more expected points. Their numbers are better everywhere. Good odds for an home win again.
Leganes has more than 5 expected points than Espanyol. Their main strength is their defensive numbers, very few shots and one of the best keepers in La Liga. Value on the Home win again.

In Bundesliga there is still value with Hamburg and Mainz. We keep betting on them even if they have tough fixtures. Hamburg has more than 18 points less than expected. The odds for a draw offer the best value for this match.
Leverkusen-Mainz offers the best value for a draw. Leverkusen numbers are a bit better, especially in defense. The odds are very good for a draw given the level of underperformance of Mainz.

In Ligue 1 there is a lot of value in this fixture. Toulouse and Troyes have only 1 expected point difference. Toulouse has better numbers everywhere but not enought to compensate for the expected points.
Dijon-Rennes has a similar story. Their expected points diference is 0.9 and they have the same offensive stats. Another match with great value for a draw.
St Etienne has surprisingly good shot accuracy. Their numbers are a bit worse than Caen but Caen is overperforming (7 points more than expected). The odds for an Home win are very good.
Nice has been overperforming all season. Finally their stats are starting to match their expected points but they still have 5 points less than expected. Metz is at the bottom of the table, they don't have bad numbers but the odds for an away win offer the best value.

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Slip 19-20-21 January 2018


My slip below for the weekend 19-20-21 January 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds
Italy Serie A Lazio Chievo X 8 6.660
Italy Serie A Sampdoria Fiorentina 2 8 2.470
Italy Serie A Cagliari AC Milan 2 8 2.070
Spain La Liga Espanyol Sevilla 2 8 2.770
Spain La Liga Getafe Atheltic Bilbao X 8 3.200
England Premier League Everton West Bromwich X 8 3.130
England Premier League Leicester Watford X 8 3.860
Germany Bundesliga Hamburg Koln 1 8 2.220
Germany Bundesliga Mainz Stuttgart 1 8 2.640
France Ligue 1 Rennes Angers X 8 3.240
France Ligue 1 Nantes Bordeaux X 8 3.260

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Serie A is back this weekend and there is some value to find there. Lazio is having a great season so far but the model says it's overerforming a little bit. There are 18 points between them and Chievo but only 3 expected points. They concede much less than Chievo but the offensive numbers are pretty much similar. Chievo is also underperforming. The odds for a draw are too high not to bet on it.
Fiorentina is a very good team, their main problem is shooting accuracy (15 in Serie A). Sampdoria is exactly the opposite, very high accuracy but worse numbers than Fiorentina everywhere else. Great odds for an away win.
AC Milan is a better team than Cagliari, all numbers are for them. An away win at just above 2 is great value for the model.

Let's look at La Liga. Sevilla is having a bad form but they have good numbers. They have 3 points less than expected, Espanyol are instead slightly overperforming. The away win is quite likely.
Getafe-Bilbao is a risky bet. The draw seems to have a good value for the model. Very similar numbers, maybe Bilbao a bit better but the home factor moves the needle towards a draw.

There is a lot of value in the Premier League at the moment. The model selects 2 matches in particular. Here we bet against the overperformers Everton (to draw at home vs West Brom) and Leicester (another draw vs Watford). In both cases the numbers are pretty similar but the home advantage favours more a draw than an away win. The odds for a draw are very very high.

In Bundesliga there is value especialy in the bottom of the League. Hamburg and Mainz are the underperformers of Bundes. They both have a home match and numbers slightly better than their opponents. The regression factor plays a big role here and the odds are very good.

In Ligue 1 Rennes and Angers have almost identical defensive numbers. Rennes have better offensive stats but Angers have more expected points. Great odds for a draw.
Nantes and Bordeaux have very similar offensive numbers but Bordeaux has a much better defense (only 67 corners conceded). The home advantage is still a factor however and a draw is the most likely result according to the model.

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Slip 13-14 January 2018


My slip below for the weekend 13-14 January 2018.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds
England Premier League Crystal Palace Burnley 1 8 2.040
England Premier League Watford Southampton X 8 3.480
England Premier League West Brom Brighton 1 8 2.180
Germany Bundesliga Augsburg Hamburg 2 8 4.340
Germany Bundesliga Hannover Mainz 2 8 3.450
Spain La Liga Girona Las Palmas X 8 3.970
Spain La Liga Alaves Sevilla 2 8 2.270
France Ligue 1 Caen Lille X 8 2.950
France Ligue 1 Rennes Marseille 2 8 2.000
France Ligue 1 Dijon Metz X 8 3.700

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Let's start with Premier League. Palace is finally recovering from the bad start of season and regressing to the mean. Burnley defeats all models, they conceded an impressive number of shots, corners and have very low offensive numbers. Palace is a better team according to all stats and they have home advantage. I am sure Burnley will manage to draw this somehow but I stick with the model.
Watford has better defensive numbers than Southampton. Only 264 shots against and high number of shots too. Southampton is better offensively so the model sees value in a draw.
West Brom underperforming and Brighton doing better than numbers suggest. There are 3 expected points between the two teams. Good odds on West Brom win.

In Bundesliga there is still a lot of value. Hamburg is a good offensive team, they have similar shots and corners to Augsburg but they beat them on shot precision (third in the League). They are underperforming and odds are very good for an away win.
Mainz is very similar to Hamburg, underperforming, great shot precision. Great odds again for an away win.

Let's go for La Liga. Las Palmas is the number one underperformer in La Liga. Girona is instead overperforming. Good combination and nice odds for a draw.
Alaves-Sevilla seems a no brainer. I may be missing something here but ts great odds for Sevilla away win.

In Ligue 1 Caen has similar expected points Lille. A bit risky but good reward for a draw.
Marseille is a much better team than Rennes. Only team above 300 shots with PSG, very good defensive numbers. Good value for an away win at Rennes.
I am impressed by how similar Dijon and Metz underlying numbers are. Metz is severely underperforming so in principle you could bet on an away win which has very high odds if you feel. The model sees slightly more value in a draw.





My first 4 months of value betting


I have started to bet following a model this season. In this post I am going to describe my first attempts, how I built a strategy and the results I reached.

After spending months developing a model for expected points I decided in September to spend a little time and money to validate it in the real world. I deposited 200 £ and started to bet.

At first I tried with Overs but I quickly found out that was not the best strategy as I ended up losing 10 £ in my first 9 bets. The reason is that Alfa Data model predicts expected points much better than expected goals. So I started to focus on 1X2 betting, selecting higher odds and putting a lower amount on each bet. I placed 3 bets in September following this strategy. Here they are.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Result
Italy Serie A Udinese Sampdoria 1 5 2.719 8.55
Germany Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt Stuttgart 1 5 2.080 5.40
Spain La Liga Leganes Atletico Madrid X 5 3.710 13.55


All successful. I bet 15 £ and won more than 25 £. That was the beginning of my strategy.

My attempts and mistakes in the month of September have thought me some lessons that I think are valuable.

  • Always bet something between 2-5% of your bankroll on a single bet. Adjust the amount monthly.
  • Only bet on Leagues you know (or you have a model for).
  • Never ever do accas.
  • When in doubt bet on a draw.

These suggestions are valid indipendently from the model used. You can follow them even if you bet using your guts. Let me stress again how is important not to do accas. Accas are the best way to lose money. Betting on a combination of outcomes increases greatly your chances to lose. Even if every bet has very low odds the chance that one of them goes wrong increases exponentially with the number of bets in the acca. It's simple maths. And the bookies know it.

After the first few bets, ath the end of September I had a little more than my initial bankroll of 200 GBP. I decided to place 5 GBP for every bet. This is indeed 2.5% of the bankroll.

The bets above are useful to show the best strategy for this model. First, I decided for a 1X2 type bet. This is perfect for a model that gives you expected points. Second, I identify the over and under performing teams and see if any of them are playing against each other. Third, I check if the odds are high enough for this type of bets. Given past performance of the model I find it's profitable to bet on thse type of matches only when the odds are above 2 more or less. Last, you bet on the team that is underperforming and against the team that is overperforming. You are basically betting on regression to the mean for both teams.

I bet the same amount on each bet. I adjusted the amount bet every month. I kept it at 5 GBP for the whole of October, increased at 7 in November, decreased at 6 for the first bets in December and again increased at 7 for the latest bets. In the future I plan to adjust the amount every week.

The performance of this strategy over the month of October, November and December is shown below.

Month Number of Bets Total Stake Won ROI
October 26 130 32.70 25%
November 30 182 -11.69 -6.4%
December 12 81 81.09 100%
Total 68 393 102.1 26%
Monthly Average 22.3 131 34.0 39.7%

The sample includes 3 months betting for a total of 68 bets placed. Clearly not a very big sample but big enough to draw some conclusions.

The model seems to have a predictive power. The number of correctly predicted bets is higher than 50%.

The model is profitable. The total profit made is over 100 GBP, which means I increased my bankroll from 200 GBP up to 300 GBP in just 3 months. The profit per bet is 1.50 GBP per bet.

The model has high variance. Looking at the ROI month by month it's pretty clear that the value fluctuates a lot and it will take another couple of months of bets to stabilise.

Overall these 4 months have been productive. The first month was used to tune the strategy and identify the best way to extract value from the model. Luckily it ended up positive too.

In the table below you can see the overall results including September.

Month Number of Bets Total Stake Won ROI
September 12 75 18.43 24.5%
October 26 130 32.70 25%
November 30 182 -11.69 -6.4%
December 12 81 81.09 100%
Total 80 468 120.5 25.7%
Monthly Average 20 117 34.0 35.9%

Looking back at these 4 months of experiemnts I think the results are positive. Not only financially but also in terms of knowledge gained. I learnt that a model is not enough to design a betting strategy. Bankroll management and being able to identify bets with value are even more important. I see betting as an investment opportunity. It's risky but not more than investing in stocks. At least for betting I have a model and some domain knowledge.

In the next months I will keep monitoring the metrics of the strategy and I can only hope that my performance will be the same, that would mean I will have a bankroll of 750 £ by June. My expectations are lower, based on past performance, the ROI of the model is somewhere closer to 5% than the current 25%.



Results of the weekend 8-9-10 December 2017


The results of this weekend bet.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds Result
France Ligue 1 Nantes Nice 2 7 3.850 19.95
Italy Serie A Cagliari Sampdoria X 7 3.560 17.92
Spain La Liga Valencia Celta Vigo X 7 4.270 -7
England Premier League Burnley Watford X 7 3.260 -7
England Premier League Newcastle Leicester 1 7 2.640 -7
Germany Bundesliga Hamburg Wolfsburg 1 7 2.630 -7
Germany Bundesliga Leipzig Mainz X 7 5.110 28.77
Spain La Liga Alaves Las Palmas 2 7 3.280 -7
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen 2 7 2.210 8.47
Total 63 40.11

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Very good weekend. Was able to find value in 9 games and we predicted the outcome of 4 out of 9. We won the riskiest (according to bookies) bet and that alone makes up more than half of our weekend winnings.

Won bets placed in Ligue 1, Serie A and Bundesliga. Lost all bets on Premier and La Liga. The most profitable League was Bundesliga, 2 out of 3 bets won. There is a lot of value there at the moment. Many teams will come up from the bottom and many other will start losing games soon. On the negative side, Burnley and Newcastle keep being extremely difficult teams to predict.

The winnings of this weekend total 40.11 units for a total stake of 63 units. This makes the total December winnings 81.09 units with total stake at 81 units. This result brings the December ROI down (believe it or not) to 100%.





Slip 10 December 2017


My slip below for Sunday 10/12/2017.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds
France Ligue 1 Nantes Nice 2 7 3.850

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Only one match today and it's in Ligue 1. There is one bug underperforming team here and it's Nice. They have great shooting accuracy, good number of shots and corners.They concede a bit too much. Nantes has worse offensive numbers and awful defensive ones (105 corners conceded), Their keeper is one of the best in the league. An away win is very likely and the odds are definitely worth a bet.





Slip 9 December 2017


My slip below for Saturday 09/12/2017.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds
Italy Serie A Cagliari Sampdoria X 7 3.560
Spain La Liga Valencia Celta Vigo X 7 4.270
England Premier League Burnley Watford X 7 3.260
England Premier League Newcastle Leicester 1 7 2.640
Germany Bundesliga Hamburg Wolfsburg 1 7 2.630
Germany Bundesliga Leipzig Mainz X 7 5.110

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


Let's start with Serie A where Cagliari and Sampdoria have impressive similar numbers. I think Samp is over performing since a long time and a draw is the most likely result here.


Let's go for La Liga. Valencia is a big surprise and I will bet against them as often as possible from now on. They concede a lot and Celta has better defensive numbers and very similar offensive ones. Again, the model sees value in a draw.


In Premier League there is only one big over performer, which is Burnley. They should not get more than a draw against Watford. Another team to watch closely is Newcastle. They have very good defensive numbers and they can get a home win vs Leicester.


In Bundesliga there is some value currently. Probably best in Europe to bet on currently. Hamburg is a good offensive team and definitely better than Wolfsburg. Leipzig is over performing a bit and has similar defensive numbers to Mainz. The bet is very risky but the odds are worth it.




Slip 8 December 2017


My slip below for Friday 08/12/2017.

Country Division HomeTeam AwayTeam Prediction Wager Odds
Spain La Liga Alaves Las Palmas 2 7 3.280
Germany Bundesliga Stuttgart Bayer Leverkusen 2 7 2.210

*1=Home Team | X=Draw | 2=Away Team


A look at La Liga shows that there is not much value to bet on at the moment. Las Palmas at the bottom of the league currently, should have many more points. Outperforms Alaves in almost all stats. More shots,corners and less shots conceded. Good value in the away win.


In Bundesliga now where there is some value here and there. Leverkusen has very good numbers and should win against an overperforming Stuttgart, with amost 3 points more than expected. A look at the other numbers shows Leverkusen with 70 corners vs 58 and a slightly better defense.